31
May
The seafood export thrived to USD2.5bn (+46% yoy) in 1Q22, mainly driven by sales revival in all markets for all seafood categories. Hence, 24 listed seafood exporters recorded a VND16tn revenue (+47.5% yoy) and VND1,281bn NPAT (+2.4x yoy). We maintain OUTWEIGHT rating even the seafood stocks were up sharply in1H22. We believe the rally is persisting through 3Q22F given clear earnings momentum backed by sound business conditions.
31
May
Last week, trading activity increased across the covered warrant market. With foreign trading activity, the market has turned around to be net sold but selling pressure was not strong. Notably, covered warrants which have FPT as the underlying asset has attracted most of trading activity for 7 consecutive weeks, mainly driven by CFPT2203 (107.8%).
31
May
Long position on VN30F2206 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,250 pts level. For better entry, traders could wait for the minor pullback and capture the long positions near 1,300 pts level and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,250 pts level. (Hourly chart)
31
May
The VNIndex maintains its uptrend because of (1) closing above the 20-period moving average, and (2) increasing volume. Therefore, traders may open small long positions, and avoid buying on margin.
31
May
Market ended up to be net sold. Selling activity was absorbed the most by Financials, Real Estate, and Consumer Staples whilst demand focused Consumer Discretionary. With ETF flow, money inflow across Vietnam remained. Net inflow was USD32mn. The positive flow of money was mainly absorbed by VFMVN Diamond and Fubon FTSE Vietnam.
30
May
The VNIndex confirmed the bullish market because of (1) closing above the 10-period moving average, and (2) increasing volume. Therefore, traders may be open small long positions, and avoid buying on margin.
30
May
The VNIndex forms the uptrend thanks to some bullish signals. Traders may open small long positions on leading stocks. However, the downside risk is still intact in the long term, hence, they should avoid buying on margin.
29
May
Long VN30F2206 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,250 pts level. For better entry, traders could wait for the minor pullback and capture the long positions near 1,300 pts level and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,250 pts level. (Hourly chart)
27
May
S&P recently upgraded Vietnam’s sovereign credit rating to BB+, the highest level in the speculative-grade group. This development opens the chance for Vietnam to reach the investment-grade level soon, implying potential inflows from foreign investors through the portfolio investment, especially in the government debt market. Indonesia’s success in attracting foreign capital into the capital market by showing investors its commitment to a transparent and sustained capital market was a valuable lesson for Vietnam.
27
May
Based on our estimates, 1Q22 aggregated revenue of listed T&G and yarn companies perked up 32.6%/22.6% yoy while NPATMI soared 71.5%/ 22.3% yoy, respectively. Top companies include VGG (+550% yoy), HTG (+247.6% yoy), and VGT (+102% yoy). 2Q is a typical peak period when production begins for the next fall/winter season. Inventory assets swelled 24.5% yoy as of end-1Q22 in T&G companies, and this demonstrates healthy conditions among clients. Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover in Apr 2022 sustains the revival growth of 28.4% yoy and 3.6% mom to USD3.1bn. Revenue recovery could ramp up in 2Q22F for T&G segments.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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