Research Center

We initiate coverage with a BUY rating and TP of VND70,500, based on a 10% discount to our SOP valuation. PHR is firing on all cylinders, with a promising outlook of faster approval for VSIP3 while its rubber segment continues to expand steadily. Valuation is attractive, in our view, at 7.1X FY21F PE while providing a stable dividend yield of 6.7%.

We tuned in to broadcast KBC’s AGM on April 12 which briefs its stunning business plan to back to the golden times. In FY21F, KBC targets the highest record of profit after tax guidance to VND2tn, 573% yoy driven by the handover of industrial land bank and residential units mounting to VND6.6tn (3 times higher yoy). The company aims to monetize the 581ha land parcel Trang Cat townhouse project which has been idle since 2012 on the dream of reaping VND60tn gross development value.

On April 6th, we attended the TCM's 2021 AGM to to articulate the business plan in FY21F, and its results so far are encouraging.

On Mar 31, we attended AGG’s 2021 AGM, and the presentation was largely centered on the FY21F guidance, contract sale target, and share issuance plan. Per management guidance, FY21F earnings translate into a forward PE of 6.8x and PB of 1.6x, unwarranted with the local peer median of 14x and 2.1x, respectively. We think investors seem to have overreacted to the moderate land bank area of 43-53ha and neglect the solid growth outlook in FY21F-22F.

The country credit growth was 1.47% ytd as of 19 March 2021, doubling the same period last year but is relatively low as compared to previous years. However, we believe this is not a sign of bank tightening credit to the economy as the industry is often busy at the quarter-end. Besides, from banks’ guidance for upcoming annual general meetings (AGM) we see that bankers seem quite positive on 2021’s outlook.

On Mar 27, PDR held a 2021 AMG briefing for the upcoming business expansion plan. Key issues covered were the FY21F guidance, industrial estate development, and renewable energy strategy. Per management guidance, FY21F earnings translate into a forward P/E of 14.3x and P/B of 2.5x, on par with the local peer median at 14x and 2.1x, respectively.

ACB revealed its 2021 guidance with PBT target of VND10.6tn, up 10.5% yoy; credit growth of 9% and assets growth of 10%, meeting just 93%, 64% and 76% of our forecast respectively. We believe the above modest target is the result of the bank’s traditional conservative practice since it has not yet got the 2021’s credit growth quota from the SBV. Besides, cash dividend is not expected for 2020 and 2021.

We increase our RNAV-based target price to VND121,700 thanks to faster sales growth in Grand Park and Ocean Park projects. Industrial park segment is evaluated in timeframe of 10 years at the lease rate of USD90-95 per sq m p.a. We discount about 50% NAV of IP segment to reflect the execution risk and presales risk. However, we also reduce our discount rates applied to Can Gio and Green Ha Long projects from 85-75% to 80-70% as we have more information on the licensing process.

TCB 4Q20 NP beats our estimate by ~23% at VND3.95tn (+30.5% yoy and 28% qoq) given better-than-expected credit provision. For whole 2020, TCB earned a NP of VND12.3tn, up 22% yoy on a TOI of VND27tn, up 28% yoy. In the update, we lift our TP to VND47,000 and maintain BUY given more positive assumptions related to credit growth, assets quality, NIM and non –NII growth.