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19
September
On Sep 19, we attend Ho Chi Minh City Infrastructure Investment (CII) Extraordinary General Meeting. The company presented to the investors their plan to amend the company business line and to develop new infrastructure projects. The company failed to organize the meeting due to only ~200 investors attended, represent 31.2% of the voting shares.
06
September
VCG’s revenue doubled by +108% yoy, 132.4% qoq (VND4.5tn), and NPAT skyrocketed to VND130.3bn (+592% qoq) compared to 2Q22 loss of VND60.3bn. The real estate accounting for 25% of revenue in 1H23 posted a GM of 29% (+9%p yoy) than the construction division (60% of total revenue, GM: 2.1%, -3.3%p yoy). The Company's interest expense in 1H23 was VND430.9bn, +11% yoy. The revenue growth pushing up the interest coverage to 5x in 2Q23 from 3.3x in 2Q22
06
September
QNS is the domination of the soymilk market and also holds the second-largest sugar factory in Vietnam. With dominant market share, soymilk segment supplies a cash cow, while we anticipate that QNS's sugar production will be maintained at a high level, ensuring good selling prices and strong profit margins for QNS in the years ahead due to anti-dumping duties. We initiate our coverage on Quang Ngai Sugar (QNS VN) with a BUY rating and target price of VND65,900, implying a 33.0% upside by using a DCF (50%) and PE (50%) methodology.
05
September
Despite a flattish 2Q23 revenue growth of -3.4%yoy (VND39.9tn), earnings growth rattled by 41.5% yoy due to the interest burden coupled with an unfavorable comparison base. Gross profit reduced to VND4.9tn (-15.5%yoy). Costly material thinned industry gross margins, particularly for residential contractors. In contrast, infrastructure builders with BOT projects sustained healthier gross margins. Contractors were weighted by surging interest expense including C4G (+95 % yoy interest expense growth in 2Q23), PC1 (+59% yoy), TCD (+67% yoy).
29
August
According to the GSO estimate, in Aug, the total agriculture export value slightly increased to USD2bn (-4% mom, +24% yoy). Rice export value surged by 79% mom and 89% yoy to USD583mn. Rice export volume sharply increased by 67% mom and 54% yoy to 1mn tonnes. Vegetable export value was USD410mn (-25% mom, +69% yoy), and it accounted for 21% of total agriculture export turnover (+5.5%p yoy).
25
August
We initiate our coverage on TCB with a BUY rating and a target price of VND43,700, implying a 30% upside buy using a residual approach (50%) and P/B method (50%). TTM PB is at trough of 0.7x and we believe it is worth of trading at 1.1x PB driven by earnings turnaround in 2024-25F. TCB growth is taking a breath, made worse by the corporate bond crisis and real estate market stagnation. Against the odds, we believe it is just a temporary period of trouble.
24
August
To fulfill the urge of the Prime Minister in minister meetings, the SBV rewards the attendees with the amendment cited in Circular 10/2023 on late 23 Aug. By suspending three sub-articles 8,9,10, the SBV removes the metaphorical meaning and exposes the lenders to more discretion in setting the disbursement terms and conditions. We expect Circular 10 could facilitate the loan growth to real estate sectors and benefit the developers and homebuyers.
22
August
PNJ’s Jul net revenue surged by 8.5% mom to VND2.4tn in July 23, -5.8% yoy compared to June performance (-17.1% yoy). Gold 24K gained the spotlight with a VND5.7tn, +1.2% yoy, 30.4% of total sales. - The Jul result rewarded 7M23 NPAT growth with a 0.4% yoy (VND1.2tn, completing 60.4% of annual guidance) vs -0.5% yoy in 6M23.
17
August
2Q23 PBT surged +75%yoy (to VND1,577bn) thanks to strong income growth from non-NII (+331%yoy), low OPEX (-15.3%yoy) and a constant provision expense (+1%yoy). Meanwhile, NII kept a moderate growth rate of 7% with stable NIM. 2Q23 NPL (2-5 group) and NPL (3-5 group) fell to 6.2% (vs. 1Q23’s 7.4% and 4Q22’s 4.8%) and 3.2% (vs. 1Q23’s 3.3% and 4Q22’s 2.2%) respectively.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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