![VNM – Brief – [HOLD] – Earning recovery in 2H23](https://kisvn.vn/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/09/page-phantich-m.jpg)
11
August
VNM posted a revenue of VND15.2tn (+1.7% yoy) and PAT of VND 2,229bn (+6% yoy) in 2Q23. For 1H23, revenue and PAT were VND29.2tn and VND4,135bn respectively, completed 46% and 48% of the 2023 guidance. The domestic revenue was VND11.4tn in 2Q23, up 3.8% yoy. VNM gained domestic market share in 2Q23 driven by condensed milk, drinking yogurt, and spoon yogurt segments amid weak demand.
09
August
2Q23 PBT was up 9.8% yoy (to VND2,022bn) thanks to a strong growth of TOI. 2Q23 high provision expense (+534%yoy) was the key dampening factor to the profit growth. 2Q23 LC and LMC loan (+28.09%YTD, +4.7%qoq) was the driver of the total consumer loan (+13.22%YTD, -0.16%qoq). 2Q23 NIM (TTM) inched down to 4.3% (vs. 4.4% in 1Q23 and 4.1% in 2Q22) due to lower asset yield. NFI went up 85.3%yoy (to VND1,317bn) in 2Q23. The CIR ratio declined from 2Q22’s 38% to 2Q23’s 29%. 2Q23 NPL (2-5 group) and NPL (3-5 group) climbed to 6.0% (vs. 1Q23’s 5.2%) and 2.6% (vs. 1Q23’s 2.0%) respectively.
09
August
PVD posted its 2Q23 results with revenue of VND1.4tn (-6.7% yoy) due to lower revenue from well-related services and no revenue from leased rigs. While NPAT-MI turned green to VND161bn in 2Q23 vs a net loss of VND60bn in 2Q22 since PVD’s average jack-up (JU) day rate (USD75,000/day), utilization rate rose strongly yoy and booking a compensation of VND70bn for ending drilling contract with Valeura - Thailand.
08
August
2Q23 PBT stayed flat at -1.2%yoy (to VND2,741bn) due to a high provision expense (86%yoy). 2Q23 total credit rose up 9.3% YTD to VND293,129bn, nearly equals to 1Q23’s 9.0% YTD and the 1st credit quota of 10.5%. In 1H2023, HDB focused on lending to the commercial loan rather than retail loan and consumer finance. Consolidated 1Q23 NIM fell slightly to 5.0% (vs 5.1% in 2Q22 and 1Q23). 2Q23 NFI climbed 45%yoy (VND1,337bn). 2Q23 CIR maintained at 35% (vs 2Q22’s 36%). Q23 NPL (2-5 group) and NPL (3-5 group) accelerated to 7.2% (vs. 1Q23’s 5.1%) and 2.2% (vs. 1Q23’s 1.8%) respectively.
07
August
Based on our data collected from 26 listed companies in the agriculture sector, revenue rose by 19% yoy to VND27.2tn, mainly contributed by the surging revenue of crop producers by 20% yoy, and 18% yoy in feeding companies. We anticipate the rice export turnover will keep rising on quarterly and yearly basis in 3Q23, base on following catalysts (1) Russia’s exit from Blacksea Grain Initiation (2) El Nino threatens to drag the yield down and (3) India banned non-bastima rice, addition to the ban of 25% broken rice export and 30% tax imposed for non-bastima rice since Sep-2022.
07
August
In 2Q23, the growth rate of the firms in the VNINDEX was almost zero, bringing the trailing PE to 14.5x. In the short term, we don’t think the PE level to be attractive for trading activities when (1) the figure has reached the average PE of VNINDEX in the period of 2018-23 and (2) it also points out the current return of VNIndex investment is not more attractive than the deposit savings (the current spread by VNIndex’s E/P and deposit rate is only 0.6%.
07
August
Sugar sector got a spotlight, the aggregated sugar revenue growth rate in 2Q23 was 29.1% yoy in 2Q23 compared to 41.2% yoy in 1Q23. Meanwhile, net profit growth rate accelerated to 64.0% yoy in 2Q23 from the growth rate of 31.1% yoy seen in 1Q23. For 3Q23F, we expect the consumption of F&B product could improve slightly in 3Q23. Besides, we expect the gross margins of listed dairy companies to improve continuously qoq in 3Q23F due to enjoying cooling raw material prices.
07
August
This quarterly earnings report is a wrapped-up note of listed Vietnamese residential developers based on their financial statements. 1Q23 was awesome but 2Q23 was much more stunning when aggregated revenue/ NPAT of 27 listed housing developers grew splendidly with 104% yoy/18.1% qoq revenue and 163% yoy/ -11.2% qoq net profit . In contrast to tepid 2Q23 when the seasonal marketing campaigns or sales events commenced, we believe the market could welcome numerous activities including the soft launch of NLG, KDH, and PDR.
04
August
The aggregated PBT (27 banks) stayed flat at -2.6%yoy in 1Q23 and -5.7%QoQ, filling about 47% PBT guidance. Results were divergent with 11/27 outperformers. 1H23 credit growth rose 4.73%YTD, far behind 1st credit quota of 11% and the same period in previous years. 2Q23 NIM of most banks plunged yoy and qoq. Increasing 2Q23 bad debt wearied down the provision buffer. Expected 3Q23 credit growth could rise faster than 1H23. NIM could not be down furthermore amid the deposit rate decline and CASA improvement.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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