02
November
Demand appears again in the afternoon, dragging the stock market to close in the green territory. However, inflow is quite weak as the liquidity remains at a low level. Furthermore, the downside risk is still present, as the VNIndex maintains to close below all major moving average lines. Therefore, investors should stand aside and carefully observe the next movements of the market.
01
November
Selling pressure still suddenly intensifies in the afternoon, causing the stock market to fall deeply at the end. Although the liquidity has improved, still records at a low level, indicating investors’ sentiment is quite hesitant. Besides, the downside risk is currently high, as the VNIndex maintains to close below all major moving average lines. Therefore, investors should stand aside and carefully observe the next movements of the market.
31
October
Selling pressure comes back in the afternoon, causing the stock market to fall deeply at the end. Notably, the liquidity is declined and recorded at a low level, indicating investors’ sentiment is still quite hesitant and not balance. Besides, the downside risk is currently high, as the VNIndex maintains to close below all major moving average lines. Therefore, investors should stand aside and carefully observe the next movements of the market.
31
October
. In general, outflow pressure has slowed down but demand was still weak. In this case, we expect that Vietnam would experience the flat net flow in upcoming weeks due to the slowdown of outflow as well as the weak demand.
30
October
Demand comes back in the afternoon, dragging the stock market to increase again with low liquidity, showing positive signals. However, the downside risk is still intact as the VNIndex maintains to close below all major moving average lines. Therefore, investors should reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold and wait for the next signal.
30
October
Medium-term correction period is confirmed and the bullish swing could not come back in the short-term. Besides, market leg is still unclear and selling pressure is still high. Thus, investors should stay on the sidelines and wait for more valid signal for the upcoming trend.
27
October
Selling pressure intensifies suddenly again, causing the stock market to decrease heavily during the session. Notably, the important support zone of the 1,080-1,100 points zone is broken with high liquidity, indicating a selling signal. Therefore, investors should reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold and wait for the next signal. The next time, if the market appears recovery session, investors should be careful with their investment decisions. Because the downside risk is at a high level and more probability it is a Bull Trap.
26
October
Selling pressure in the afternoon causes the stock market to decrease again with low liquidity. The downside risk is still intact as the VNIndex maintains to end below all major moving average lines. However, the important support zone of the 1,080-1,100 points is still not breakout. Therefore, investors should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals.
25
October
Although still weak, the return of inflow helps the stock market to experience a gain day again with declined liquidity. That shows positive signals, however, that could also be a Bull Trap. The downside risk is still intact and quite significant as the VNIndex maintains to end below all major moving average lines. Therefore, investors should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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