Research Center

We initiate an Overweight rating on the Crushed Stone industry in 12-month horizons spurred by the robust demand growth serving the public infrastructure spending in 2024-2025F. Going forward, the housing property could bounce back, reinforcing the crushed stone consumption growth in 2024-2023F. However, the South’s crushed stone industry could cite a slow 2023 due to the gloomy housing property dynamics seen in 2020-22. We give BUY ratings to VLB (TP: VND45,100, UPSIDE: +47%) and DHA (TP: VND47,000, UPSIDE: +22%) and HOLD to KSB

According to the GSO estimate, in May, the total agriculture export value remained stable at USD2.1bn (+2% mom, +19% yoy). Rice keeps being the highest value exported product with USD530mn (-8% mom, +37% yoy), and it accounted for 25% of total agriculture export turnover. Vegetables export value sharply rose by 22% mom and 67% yoy to USD500mn. Vegetables and fruits exporting value to China increased 30% yoy in 4M23. In 2Q23, Vietnam expected to boost durian and sweet potato sales to China market after China Customs certified more qualified export zones in Vietnam.

This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam banking is intended to track the earning growth based on financial statements. The 1Q23 recorded some anomalies when aggregated NPAT of the listed 27 banks was almost unchanged at -4.4%yoy in 1Q23 vs +17.9%yoy in 4Q22 and +31%yoy in 1Q22. Most of the banks saw 1Q23 credit growth slowness and corporate bond balance slump. There are no clear signals for strong credit demand recovery amid the economic downtrend. However, 2Q23 NIM will slightly improve qoq thanks to a decrease in funding cost in 2Q23.

In the agriculture sector, revenue edged up by 7% yoy to VND18.7tn, mainly contributed by the surging revenue of crop producers by 21% yoy, covering 20% yoy revenue slump of feeding companies. We expect that falling feed supply prices amid demand increase thanks to the long holiday (30/4-1/5) will help retrieve the pork and poultry price in 2Q23. However, the expenses of utilities and interest expenses could remain at a high level in 2Q23.

This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During Apr 23, we observed a qoq improvement pause in total sales volume.

According to Customs, in Apr, total fertilizer export volume was 131,913 tonnes (-11.5% yoy, +4.2% mom), equivalent to USD48mn (-52.9% yoy, -12.7% mom). Total urea/NPK production in Apr was 153,200/385,500 tonnes (-22.7%/+47.5% yoy, -27.3%/+22.7% mom), respectively. Overall, Apr fertilizer production was 654,200 tonnes (+7.2% mom). +13.1% yoy). The Apr urea domestic market price was trading at around VND9,500/kg (-1.0% mom, -45.7% yoy and -22% YTD).

Breweries dragged down F&B’s revenue growth in 1Q23. The beer revenue went down yoy and qoq due to tighten alcohol testing in traffic and weak purchasing power amid an economic slowdown. We expect the consumption of beer and dairy will continue to face the challenge in the 2Q23F However, we expect the gross margins of listed dairy and beer companies to improve continuously qoq in 2Q23F due to enjoying cooling raw material prices.

This quarterly earnings report on the Vietnam cement industry is intended to track the earning growth trend in the cement market. We witnessed a slump in earnings in 1Q23. High-cost input was mainly attributed to the negative aggregated profit. We expect to continue to see the weak demand in 2Q23F as construction activities are expected to be impacted by recent economic issues. As for export, we see the q-o-q improvement in the main export market – China, however, not significant. Companies' margins are expected to improve in 2Q23F thanks to lower input cost.

Apr export value growth of Vietnam’s T&G downed slightly by 3.3% mom but plunged sharply by 19.4% yoy. Hence, the 4M23 T&G export value remarkably descended (USD9.7bn, -17.9% yoy). Vietnam’s fiber and yarn (F&Y) export value also slid 26.8% yoy and -5.2% mom to USD356mn in Apr. Despite the the export value turnaround in Mar (total industry export growth of +14.5% mom), the export revenue of most listed companies diverged in Mar: (VGG -3.2% mom, -20.2% yoy), (GIL -2.4% mom, -93% yoy), vs (TNG +27.2% mom, +23.5% yoy).