![Banks brief [Overweight] – Banks see a brighter picture](https://kisvn.vn/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/09/page-phantich-m.jpg)
21
July
Last week, we had paid visits to some banks in Hanoi. In overall, they have a positive view about the recovery of local economy and industry in the coming quarters as compared to the previous months, which are thanks to 1) supportive policies by the Government, 2) a “new normal life” with virus-free, and 3) resilient domestic demand.
22
May
Mixed 1Q20 results due to diverse provisioning policies. Currently, credit demand remains weak but yet recovers. The country may return to pre-pandemic level and lending growth will regain in 3Q20
21
May
The lowest quarterly performance in 1Q20 for three years was attributed to intensified fear of COVID-19 transmission in crowded events. When normalisation of life after the lockdowns comes, developers will be under pressure to ramp up sales, which is likely to see enormous discount and eased payment terms.
16
February
We believe that steel industry has a strong growth potential thanks to the inevitable industrialization and urbanization of Vietnam in the long term. However, the operation of Dung Quat and Formosa Ha Tinh factories will reshape the domestic market significantly in the short term. Local competition will be tougher which result in narrowing profitability despite of lower input risk. Therefore, we have a NEUTRAL outlook for steel industry in 2020. Stock pick: HPG
16
February
Remarkable growth of pangasius consumption in China makes pangasius remain in the spotlight in seafood industry in 2020. Meanwhile, bread shrimp export to Japan will find support from CPTPP, but be partially overshadowed by price war with global players. In overall, we have a positive outlook about seafood sector in 2020. BUY. Stock pick: VHC, ANV
16
February
The impact of 2019-nCoV will slow down Vietnam pangasius export to China and makes us more cautious about seafood sector. Therefore, we downgrade the sector rating to HOLD for 2020. Stock pick: VHC, ANV
12
December
Although unexpected weather as well as gas shortage are shadowing the profitability of thermal plants, narrower electricity reserve margin and lower input price are investment highlights for Power sector in 2020. OVERWEIGHT. Stock pick: POW
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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