15
November
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. Oct 2021 Vietnam steel production increased 17.9% mom to 2.65mn tonnes, bringing 10M21 growth to 22.8% yoy (25.6mn tonnes). During Oct 21, we observe that the local demand revived strongly (+41.5% mom). Export saw the decline of 14.4% mom from high-base in September.
08
November
This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the earning growth trend in the steel market. We think the demand growth outlook is still brisk in 4Q21 backed by 1) realized export opportunities in the U.S. and EU 2) the bounce back for domestic demand.
19
October
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. Sept 2021 Vietnam steel production declined 4.2% mom (2.2mn tonnes), bringing 9M21 growth to 24.3% yoy (22.9mn tonnes). During Sept 21, we observe that only export saw positive sale volume growth of 13.1% mom. The local demand was sluggish (-10.7% mom).
08
October
This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the earning growth trend in the steel market. We think the splendid growth record in 2Q21 could sustain in 3Q21 of which net profit of HPG, HSG, NKG and TLH are widely rumored to record around VND9.5tn, VND950bn, VND650bn, and VND105bn, + 2.5x/2.1x/6.8x/8.5x yoy backed by 1) Buoyant demand from the U.S. and EU 2) expanding gross margin.
22
September
On Aug 31st 2021, Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) offically updated “detailed requirement for market access” towards industries with conditional market access to foreign investors, including insurance industry. With new update from MPI, Requirement clearly stated that “Not limited” for Foreign ownership at insurance companies. It will untie knots for foreign capital flowing more into domestic foreign industry.
21
September
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. Aug 2021 Vietnam steel production declined 1.9% mom (2.3mn tonnes), bringing 8M21 growth to 28.8% yoy (20.7mn tonnes). During Aug 21, we observe that only export saw positive sale volume growth of 2.8% mom. The local demand was sluggish (-16.3% mom).
11
May
SBV has sent document to credit institutions warning on 10 signs of potential risk appeared in the sector in 2020 and asked them to strictly follow Directive 01/CT-NHNN on banking key tasks in 2021. These are official messages for banking operation in 2021 in order to maintain system stability amid unpredictable COVID-19 situation. However, we don’t expect these may tamp down credit growth in coming quarters given favorable interest rate environment and dynamic local economy.
26
April
Despite the deep challenges facing aviation because of the pandemic, we believe aviation is an attractive long-term investment. The main reasons are 1) The world is getting steadily richer—about half the world is now middle class or richer so tourism demand continues to rise, 2) A tech revolution in the aviation industry make air travel safer before the pandemic and 3) Ancillary revenue has taken off, promote greater cash flow.
30
March
The country credit growth was 1.47% ytd as of 19 March 2021, doubling the same period last year but is relatively low as compared to previous years. However, we believe this is not a sign of bank tightening credit to the economy as the industry is often busy at the quarter-end. Besides, from banks’ guidance for upcoming annual general meetings (AGM) we see that bankers seem quite positive on 2021’s outlook.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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