23
May
According to the MoIT, after two months that had been disrupted in exporting, fertilizer export volume in Apr jumped 28% mom/15% yoy to hit 115,000 tonnes, with the total value of USD78mn. On average, the export price was USD678/tonne (+25% mom and +105% yoy) in Apr. In which, Viet Nam exported to Cambodia the most with the market share of about 41%.
20
May
Excluding Vimedimex with a 50.1% yoy revenue drop since VMD specializes in drug distribution, 1Q22 aggregated revenue of 28 listed pharma producers climbed by 11.8% yoy, while aggregated net profit surged by 27.4% yoy. Looking forward to 2Q22F, demand for drugs could revive both through ETC (the drug channel for treatment, which patients can only buy at hospitals) and OTC (drugstores) when everything is back to normal. The demand for vitamins, antibiotics, and functional foods will expect to increase. The need for specific drugs used in hospitals will soon climb as hospitals start accepting patients again
20
May
The reopening of all industries led oil & gas consumption to grow in 1Q22. Based on our collection, the 1Q22 aggregate earnings growth edged up 35.1% yoy in 1Q22 vs 31.7% yoy growth in 4Q21. Otherwise, the revenue growth rate in 1Q22 was still brisk at around 66.7% yoy thanks to the higher oil prices. Average selling prices were the biggest impact on revenue growth engines, in our view. The high global oil prices will lead earnings of midstream and downstream such as GAS, and BSR to grow strongly in 2Q22F.
19
May
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During Apr 22, we observed the domestic revival pause caused by high steel prices. We also expect the temporary price retreat will end soon after COVID-19 restrictions ease in China.
17
May
Food and beverage consumption recovered continually in 1Q22, albeit to a different level in each sector. Gross margin (GM) of the dairy sector narrowed in 4Q21 due to weak growth of the selling price could not offset the strong rise of input material prices. The dairy sector’s GM subdued by 2.8%p yoy while VNM’s GM plunged strongly by 3.1%p yoy in 1Q22 due to imported milk powder prices raised sharply by 30-40% yoy in 1Q22. On the other hand, the beer sector gross margin expanded by 1.7%p yoy to 27% in 1Q22. SAB’s GM improved by 0.6%p yoy in 1Q22 due to high APS although raw material prices such as aluminum and malting barley hiked. Reopening fully all industries to prompt household incomes to continue to grow in 2Q22F, thus, F&B companies could increase selling prices more easily to offset the spike in raw materials. Therefore, we expect an expanding gross margin in 2Q22F for dairy and brewing listed companies due to cooling commodity prices and fully benefit from higher selling prices.
17
May
Total consumption volume edged up 4.9% yoy to 63.03bn kWh thanks to economy recovery. 1Q22 aggregate revenue of 38 listed power makers jumped 16.3% yoy, while NPAT post-MI hiked 69.9% in which hydropower was bright star. Input material such as Newcastle coal & Singapore fuel oil prices spiked 187% yoy and 49% yoy. Many coal-fired power operated under their capacities when the ability of Vinacomin to supply enough coal for power plants in 2Q22F is still unknown. Thus, we believe hydropower makers will be the biggest beneficiaries in 2Q22F.
17
May
According to Insurance Association of Viet Nam (IAV) published 3M22 market firgures on May 16th 2022. Total insurance premium accumulated in 1Q22 was pegged VND58,485bn (+14.6% yoy). In which, life insurance premium increased by 14.7% to VND 17,082bn; non-life insurance premium also surged by 14.6% to VND38,403bn.
16
May
In Apr 2022, electricity production was 22.6bn kWh (-3.5% mom, +1.9% yoy). Hydropower is the biggest beneficiary (+26.7% yoy) in the context of rising fuel oil and coal prices, coupled with tight coal supplies when coal and gas thermal power output sharply plunged. Vinacomin pledged to compensate the not-yet-delivered 1Q22 contracted coal volume in the remaining quarters, equivalent to 0.8mn tonnes. It promised to supply enough coal in 2Q22 to EVN’s power plants while the total value of imported coal reached its peak.
11
May
This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the earning growth trend in the steel market. In 1Q22, we saw aggregated revenue growth persisted with double digits while NPATMI growth was muted due to the higher base seen in 1Q21 and thinner yoy gross margin marred by input cost inflation. In 2Q22, we expect to see a slower pace in domestic demand revival in 2Q22F due to the sharp steel price rise in 4M22. The temporary global economic weakness caused by COVID-19 restrictions in China eased the prices of steel products and some input materials. Therefore, companies, especially flat steel exporters, can consider the temporary decline as an opportunity for lower-cost inventories.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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