Research Center

Based on our estimate, 1Q22 aggregated revenue of 24 listed fertilizer producers jumped 71.2% yoy (VND30.9tn), while aggregated NPATMI climbed 7.9x yoy (VND6.8tn). In 1Q22, total consumption volume sustained but export skyrocketed with 510,000 tonnes, +47% yoy/+31% qoq, equivalent to 44%/40% of the total export in 2020-21. We view the proposal to impose an export tax of 5% from the Ministry of Finance could weigh down some exporters. However, 5% is an insignificant threshold to loom the export where exporters could gain a lucrative gap between the export and domestic prices. Furthermore, when the Summer-Autumn crop comes, the domestic demand could bounce to offset the loss from export constrain if any.

In Apr 2022, prelim seafood export value recorded USD1,056mn (+41% yoy and + 4% mom), driven by shrimp product with USD406mn (+35% yoy and +2% mom), pangasius product with USD297mn (+105% yoy a nd +11% mom).Vietnam’s prelim seafood export to US market increased to USD266mn (+79% yoy. +16% mom), China market also surged by 108% yoy and 12% mom to USD216mn in Apr.

This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During Mar 22, we observed the continuous domestic revival in all finished steel products on month-on-month basic. . The total consumption volume (excluded steel coil) was up 17.4% mom to 1.9mn tonnes, -6.0% yoy.

According to Insurance Association of Viet Nam (IAV), 2M21 total life premium was pegged at VND21,888bn (+17.2% yoy). In detail, the premium of renewal contract led the industry growth with VND15,829bn (32%yoy), offset by the tepid premium of new placement contract with VND6,059bn (-9.5% yoy). Non-life insurance premium surged to VND11,248bn (+15.3% yoy) with positive growth rate from health insurance, motor vehicle and P&C insurance. On the other side, the increasing trend of both deposit rates and bond yields will secure the investment income of insurance companies as the majority of insurance companies’ financial assets are in the form of bank term deposits and bond (both government and corporate).

In 2022, we forecast that the seafood export value could reach USD9.2bn (+5.4% yoy). The validity of tariffs in FTAs sharpens the Vietnam fishery’s competitive edges and that bolsters export growth. Our Overweight rating on Vietnam’s seafood industry is based on the strong potential earnings growth for pangasius producers backed by the sustainable export demand.

In 3M22, aggregate output volume went up 4.9% yoy to 63.03bn kWh thanks to economy recovery, in which hydropower and renewable energy are the biggest beneficiaries. Total coal volume supplied by Vinacomin (TKV) and Dong Bac Group were only 77% and lacked 1.36 million tonnes compared to contracted volume. Some coal-fired power plants are operating at 60-70% of capacity. EVN predicted a shortage of 3,000 megawatts of electricty.

Trading value in 1Q22 was VND31.2tn (-7.1% QoQ) thanks to high liquidity in Jan and Mar. Number of of new accounts created new high record in March with 270,636 accounts. At end-Mar, accumulated number of accounts was 4.95mn. The ratio of domestic individuals accounts overpopulation is 5% which is 2025 target for the stock market. In term of HSX's brokerage market share, VPS expands their market share to 17.94%. SSI and HCM continue to lost their pieces while VND and TCBS slightly uplifted market share.

Compared to Feb, fertilizer production in Mar recovered with 597,800 tonnes (+10% mom and +2% yoy). Fertilizer export volume in Mar had modest amount at 90,000 tonnes, up 80% mom but down 30% yoy. While the export price in Mar was estimated at USD544/tonne (+5% mom and +76% yoy), the import price was USD400/tonne (-18% mom but +43% yoy).

In 1Q22, Vietnam seafood export surged 40% yoy to USD2,427.4mn, driving by +88% yoy of pangasius export value, +35% yoy of shrimp export value, and +55% yoy of tuna export value. Seafood export to main markets increased strongly in 1Q22 as +84% yoy in China market, +66% yoy in US market and +69% yoy in EU market.