Research Center

We forecast that the VNIndex in 2021 can reach 1,300 points thanks to promising opportunities from high-value chain shifts and potential benefits from FTA agreements such as RCEP.. Moreover, statistical evidence support the bullish market next year.

Biden’s ambitious plan may boost long-term economic growth, followed by an expansion in trade activities. As an essential trading partner, we expect U.S. stimulus policy to benefit the Vietnam economy in the long-run. However, Vietnam also faces uncertainties when the president-elect heavily focuses on strengthening domestic production and potentially change trade policy toward China.

High margin debt and the selling pressure of foreign investors cause the stock market to form a short-term peak. However, Vietnam economy recovers, along with the capital flow of ETFs that will support the stock market and continue its uptrend in the long term.

Although we expect the current rally of the market will continue in the rest of this year (because the VNIndex is trading at 15x its earnings, lower than 16x of 2019-end, while interest rate is lower), the pace will be slower and range trading may be more appropriate for the time being.

Because our year-end target for the VNIndex is still between 900 - 1,000, assuming that interest rate remains low and the economy recovers markedly, we expect to see the bullish scenario in September. Of note, FOL stocks may be the best performers given the consistent strong foreign inflow into VFM VN Diamond and SSIAM VN FinLead ETFs.

Given the current well-controlled virus situation, we maintain our target of 900-1,000 for the VNIndex by the end of this year. However, the outbreak of Danang teaches us that there is a high probability of another virus resurgence, another economic lockdown as well as another sell-off of the stock market and the recovery path will be intermittent, a new normal life.

For July, we are more optimistics than June as the recent correction with diminishing volume looks like a consolidation period. Therefore, we expect to see the VNIndex resume its uptrend or stop falling at least in July. However, the market may become choppy by the month-end because 2Q business results of listed companies may make many surprises this year.

As of 02 Jun, our KIS universe was traded at 14.2x its 2020 earnings, higher than 2019-end PE of 13.3x. In terms of technical analysis, the VNIndex is now heading back to 900, its strong support when the pandemic broke out in early February, warning a strong selling pressure there. Although new money may continue to support the market in the coming weeks, we recommend a cautious stance in Jun

As the pandemic has made significant behavioral changes in production, consumption as well as investment, seasonal effects will be likely ineffective this year. We recommend investors to “DO NOT sell in May and go away” because of potential new local money.