18
May
The global condition has exerted pressure on the stock market in the short term because (1) companies have faced difficulties in 1Q23 and (2) the corporate bond market poses future financial pressure. We expect two scenarios may unfold. Firstly, in the bullish scenario, the VNIndex can reach 1,220 pts in 2H23. Secondly, the bearish scenario suggests the VNIndex retest the zone of 780-910 pts.
20
April
We predict Vietnam’s real GDP to accelerate in 2Q23 with an impressive growth rate of 6.92% YoY due to a solid retail sales growth, higher public investment, and improving external factors, especially the promising China’s rebound. Besides, we expect inflation to be well-controlled although facing challenges related to raising retail electricity prices and the potential AFS outbreak. Seafood and agriculture, in our view, would be benefitted from China's reopening and global uncertainty themes in 2Q23. Oil&Gas is the bright spot in the long run thanks to recent positive catalysts.
20
March
The stock market shows a consolidation phase or sideway trend in the short term. However, the downside risks are still intact in the medium term due to (1) the low liquidity, (2) the slowdown of the global economy (3) the pressure of the maturity of corporate bonds from May to Sep 2023. We expect the market to resume a downtrend and then form an important bottom from May 2023 to Sep 2023. The target price of this bottom is a range of 780-910 points.
17
February
The short-term uptrend from Nov 2022 may be reversed as (1) business activities of companies face difficulties (reduced net income) due to the slowdown of the global economy (2) pressure of the maturity of corporate bonds in 2023 with a net value of VND82tn in 2Q23 and VND114tn in 3Q23. We expect the market may resume to a bearish trend in the short term and then form an important bottom from May 2023 to Sep 2023. The target price of this bottom is a range of 780-910 points.
17
January
The long Tet holiday continues to impact on Vietnam stock market in Jan and Feb. However, the impact will end after the Tet. We expect the market to maintain its medium-term downtrend in 1H23. And then, the market will rebound since 2H23 thanks to (1) Good fundamentals and (2) attractive valuation. Specifically, the VNIndex will form an important bottom from May 2023 to Sep 2023 in the range of 780-910 points.
16
December
Open weak and close strong In the medium term, the market may still fall due to (1) Pressure from high Fed interest rates and (2) Low liquidity of the corporate bond market. However, we expect the market to rebound since 2H23 thanks to (1) Good fundamentals and (2) attractive valuation. Specifically, the VNIndex will form an important bottom from May 2023 to Sep 2023 in the range of 780-910 points. And then, the market will increase until the end of the year.
09
December
In the short term, the Vietnam stock market may maintain its uptrend, however, selling pressure may appear as soon as due to Fed policy and liquidity of the corporate bond market. We expect the stock market will fall and form a new long-term bottom in mid-2023. And the market entry the new bullish market.
07
October
Vietnam's economy is more likely to slow down in 4Q22 when the passthrough of global tendency of hawkish monetary policy becomes more pronounced. Therefore, we predict that the stock market could extend its downward momentum in the short and medium term.
06
July
Economic activities remain strong in the second quarter with an unexpectedly high growth rate due to the fruitful trade and recovering domestic consumption. Given this momentum, we predict that Vietnam’s economy to accelerate in the next quarter. However, the recession would possibly lower economic performance than expected through the global value chain transmission. For Vietnam stock market, we expect that the VNIndex would form a new trough thanks to solid macro indicators and the analysis of cycles and patterns of the VNIndex. Accordingly, the index would possibly reach the threshold of 1,300-1,400 points in 3Q22.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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