Research Center

Due to 1) the political tension between Russia and Ukraine, and 2) the race to hoard food of nations, fertilizer exports in 2022 could reach an all-time high record. We forecast revenue growth rate of this sector could hit more than 60% yoy in 2022. Among the top gainers, DPM and DCM are the best with their large exposure to export. However, we believe the advantage that Vietnam enjoyed in both 2H21 and 1H22 was a one-off event, and it is hard to happen again in both 4Q22 and 2023F due to the comeback of China and Russia in the global fertilizer battlefield.

The prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment dropped 19.7% yoy but grew 0.3% mom to USD2.9bn in Dec. The export to the US (the largest textile and garment export market of Vietnam) fell 30.1% yoy, but lifted 4.7% mom to USD1.26bn in Dec, making up 43.5% of Vietnam's total textile and garment export value. Overall, in 2022, Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover lifted 14.5% yoy to nearly USD37.5bn.

According to the GSO estimate, in Dec, the total agriculture export value was USD1,713mn (-9% mom, -6% yoy). In which, rubber accounted for 21% of total export value, followed by coffee (18%) and rice (17%).

This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During Nov 22, we observed a slight improvement in sales volume on m-o-m basis.

According to the Customs, in Nov, total fertilizer export volume was more than 92,000 tonnes (-43% mom, -34% yoy), equivalent to USD54mn (-38% mom, -32% yoy). This disappointing result was predictable as the Winter-Spring crop was happening in Vietnam. Fertilizer producers had to prioritize the domestic market first.

The prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment dropped 5.2% yoy but grew 7.0% mom to USD2.9bn in November. In November, the export to the US (the largest textile and garment export market of Vietnam) fell 18.5% yoy, but lifted 18.3% mom, accounting for 41.7% of Vietnam's total textile and garment export value. Overall, in 11M22, Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover lifted 18.7% yoy to nearly USD34.6bn.

According to GSO estimate, crude oil exploitation in Nov stayed flat at 736,000 tonnes (+0% mom, 1% yoy). In the contrast, crude oil exports and imports rose strongly mom to 300,000 tonnes (+100% mom, -14.3% yoy), and 1.7 mn tonnes (+70% mom, +54.5% yoy). Petroleum production in Nov was up slightly by 6.3% mom to 1.7 mn tonnes. Petroleum imports went up strongly to 800,000 tonnes (+33.3% mom, +42.9% yoy). Oppositely, petroleum export volume went down significantly to 70,000 tonnes (-46.2% mom, -65.0% yoy).

According to the GSO estimate, in Nov, the total agriculture export value is USD1,882mn (+5% mom, +10% yoy). In which, the highest export value is cashew with USD458mn (+68% mom, +39% yoy), equivalent to 24% of total agriculture export value.

The total revenue growth momentum of listed garment companies was maintained in 3Q22 when posting 27.0% compared to 25.8% in 2Q22. the earnings growth pace spiked from 22.6%% yoy in 2Q22 to 59.0% yoy in 3Q22 thanks to the low base effect as the Southern region was in a lockdown period in 3Q21. Whereas, listed yarn makers witnessed decent growth figures in 3Q22. Specifically, the revenue growth pace in 3Q22 was 16.7% yoy compared to only 5.5% yoy in 2Q22. Net profit growth of yarn companies also jumped to 12.7% yoy in 3Q22 from 1.2% yoy in 2Q22.