Fertilizer – [Neutral] – Sector in-depth – “It only happens once in a blue moon”
Due to 1) the political tension between Russia and Ukraine, and 2) the race to hoard food of nations, fertilizer exports in 2022 could reach an all-time high record. We forecast revenue growth rate of this sector could hit more than 60% yoy in 2022. Among the top gainers, DPM and DCM are the best with their large exposure to export. However, we believe the advantage that Vietnam enjoyed in both 2H21 and 1H22 was a one-off event, and it is hard to happen again in both 4Q22 and 2023F due to the comeback of China and Russia in the global fertilizer battlefield.