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09
February
The industry posted a VND12,048bn revenue (+7.1% yoy, +5,7% qoq) and a VND842bn NPAT (+6.0% yoy, +13.5% qoq) in 4Q22. The 4Q22 aggregated blended gross margin (GM) was 25% (+2.1%p yoy, +0.1%p qoq), while the net margin (NM) nearly stayed the same as 4Q21 with 7.2% (+0.2%p yoy, -0.2%p qoq).
08
February
According to the GSO estimate, in Jan, the total agriculture export value was more than USD1.5bn (-10% mom, -8% yoy). Coffee brought the highest value of USD352mn (+12% mom, -5% yoy), and it accounted for 23% of total agriculture export turnover, followed by vegetables (19%) and rubber (17%).
06
February
Based on our estimate, the fertilizer industry announced a VND26,023bn revenue (-9% yoy, -2% qoq) and a VND3,883bn NPAT (-21% yoy, -8% qoq) in 4Q22. 4Q22 blended gross margin (GM) lowered by 3.4%p yoy to 25.7% in 4Q22 (+0.8%p qoq), while the net margin (NM) shrank to 15% (-1.5%p yoy, -0.7%p qoq), regardless the SG&A to sales narrowed by 1.1%p yoy to 9.3% (+1.9% qoq).
06
February
This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the earning growth trend in the steel market. We witnessed a collapse in aggregated gross margin (into negative territory in 4Q22), which mainly caused by the GM collapse of HPG. In 1Q23F, we expect to see the gross margin will improve in 1Q23F when the pressure from high-cost inventories have been away.
30
January
According to GSO estimate, crude oil exploitation in Jan decreased slightly to 713,000 tonnes (-7.1% mom, -3.7% yoy). Meanwhile, crude oil export and import volume went down strongly mom but increased yoy to 200,000 tonnes (-33.3% mom, +11.1% yoy), and 1.0 mn tonnes (-28.6% mom, +42.9% yoy), respectively. Petroleum import volume and value went up strongly yoy to 1.0 mn tonnes (-16.7% mom, +51.5% yoy) and USD879mn (-20.6% mom, +87.2% yoy), respectively.
18
January
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During Dec 22, we observed a continuing m-o-m improvement in sales volume.
11
January
Due to 1) the political tension between Russia and Ukraine, and 2) the race to hoard food of nations, fertilizer exports in 2022 could reach an all-time high record. We forecast revenue growth rate of this sector could hit more than 60% yoy in 2022. Among the top gainers, DPM and DCM are the best with their large exposure to export. However, we believe the advantage that Vietnam enjoyed in both 2H21 and 1H22 was a one-off event, and it is hard to happen again in both 4Q22 and 2023F due to the comeback of China and Russia in the global fertilizer battlefield.
10
January
The prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment dropped 19.7% yoy but grew 0.3% mom to USD2.9bn in Dec. The export to the US (the largest textile and garment export market of Vietnam) fell 30.1% yoy, but lifted 4.7% mom to USD1.26bn in Dec, making up 43.5% of Vietnam's total textile and garment export value. Overall, in 2022, Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover lifted 14.5% yoy to nearly USD37.5bn.
05
January
According to the GSO estimate, in Dec, the total agriculture export value was USD1,713mn (-9% mom, -6% yoy). In which, rubber accounted for 21% of total export value, followed by coffee (18%) and rice (17%).
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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