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22
December
Steel-Brief-Neutral-Slight improvement in Nov
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During Nov 22, we observed a slight improvement in sales volume on m-o-m basis.
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12
December
Fertilizer – [Non-rated] – Brief – Export volume down in domestic peak season
According to the Customs, in Nov, total fertilizer export volume was more than 92,000 tonnes (-43% mom, -34% yoy), equivalent to USD54mn (-38% mom, -32% yoy). This disappointing result was predictable as the Winter-Spring crop was happening in Vietnam. Fertilizer producers had to prioritize the domestic market first.
09
December
Textile & Garment – Brief – Nonrated – Winter is coming
The prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment dropped 5.2% yoy but grew 7.0% mom to USD2.9bn in November. In November, the export to the US (the largest textile and garment export market of Vietnam) fell 18.5% yoy, but lifted 18.3% mom, accounting for 41.7% of Vietnam's total textile and garment export value. Overall, in 11M22, Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover lifted 18.7% yoy to nearly USD34.6bn.
30
November
Oil & Gas – Brief – Nonrated – Boosting crude oil & petroleum imports in Nov
According to GSO estimate, crude oil exploitation in Nov stayed flat at 736,000 tonnes (+0% mom, 1% yoy). In the contrast, crude oil exports and imports rose strongly mom to 300,000 tonnes (+100% mom, -14.3% yoy), and 1.7 mn tonnes (+70% mom, +54.5% yoy). Petroleum production in Nov was up slightly by 6.3% mom to 1.7 mn tonnes. Petroleum imports went up strongly to 800,000 tonnes (+33.3% mom, +42.9% yoy). Oppositely, petroleum export volume went down significantly to 70,000 tonnes (-46.2% mom, -65.0% yoy).
29
November
Agricultural – [Non-rated] – Brief – Cashew brings the highest export value
According to the GSO estimate, in Nov, the total agriculture export value is USD1,882mn (+5% mom, +10% yoy). In which, the highest export value is cashew with USD458mn (+68% mom, +39% yoy), equivalent to 24% of total agriculture export value.
13
November
Textile & Garment – Note – Nonrated – A bumpy road ahead for the industry
The total revenue growth momentum of listed garment companies was maintained in 3Q22 when posting 27.0% compared to 25.8% in 2Q22. the earnings growth pace spiked from 22.6%% yoy in 2Q22 to 59.0% yoy in 3Q22 thanks to the low base effect as the Southern region was in a lockdown period in 3Q21. Whereas, listed yarn makers witnessed decent growth figures in 3Q22. Specifically, the revenue growth pace in 3Q22 was 16.7% yoy compared to only 5.5% yoy in 2Q22. Net profit growth of yarn companies also jumped to 12.7% yoy in 3Q22 from 1.2% yoy in 2Q22.
11
November
Retail – Note – Nonrated – Christmas is coming to town
Revenue of ICT/Jewelry/Automobile/Airport retailers in 3Q22 respectively surged by 35.3%/700%/176%/700% yoy driven by the recover from extreme closure during the lockdown in 3Q21. Retailers and retail lessors are hectic preparing for the largest sale season in the year, including the Single Day 11/11, Black Friday 25/11 and Christmas 24/12.
11
November
F&B – Note – Nonrated – Expected better gross margins in 4Q22F
Breweries led F&B’s revenue and earnings growth in 3Q22, the aggregated revenue and earnings growth of 14 listed brewery producers accelerated sharply in 3Q22 compared to a low base in 3Q21. The revenue accelerated to 84% yoy compared to 21.9% yoy in 2Q22. Besides, beer producers achieved brisk net profit growth of 160% yoy compared to 60.6% yoy in 2Q22.
11
November
Power-Nonrated-3Q22 Note-2023F thermal power: Make a killing
In 3Q22, hydropower generators’ revenue and NPAT-MI went up 58% yoy and 126% yoy thanks to La Nina. The coal and input gas prices in 2023F are projected to slow down compared to the towering price in 2022. Coupled with the waning La Nina, we believe that EVN will mobilize thermal power as the alternative for shrinking hydropower output in 2023F.
Featured Articles
15
March
Point Break
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Outlook 2022 – The Big Uptrend
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
Time to bet on economic recovery?
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Fragile hope of recovery path under the worst outbreak
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
INFLATION: A transient or long-lasting shock?
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.