Research Center

This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the earning growth trend in the steel market. We witnessed a turn-around of earnings in 1Q23. Although the turn-around was mainly attributed by the reversal of inventories provision, high-cost inventories pressure was believed to be fully relieved. We expect to continue to see the weak demand in 2Q23F but slight improvement compared to 1Q23. We forecast the total sales volume in 2Q23F will be 6.1mn tonnes -6% yoy, +10% qoq.

The seafood industry exported USD1.8bn (-24.5% yoy and -28.1% qoq) in 1Q23 due to the decrease of pangasius and shrimp export As a result, the aggregate revenue growth rate of listed pangasius and shrimp exporters declined by 19.9% yoy and 25.4% yoy. We considered that 2Q23 seafood export continues to slow down yoy due to lower demand in most markets. Yet, the high demand for seafood export to China markets would partly offset the deceleration yoy of the seafood industry in 2Q23

This quarterly earnings report is a wrapped-up note of listed Vietnamese fertilizer producers based on their financial statements. Listed fertilizer companies released the 1Q23 financial statements with “disappointed but not surprised” results. The fertilizer announced a VND21,375bn revenue (-17.9% qoq, -29.5% yoy) and VND1,375bn NPAT (-64.6% qoq, -80.8% yoy). The 2Q23 prospects could be enlightened thanks the new crop season facilitating the selling price hike but not enough to come back to the 4Q22. We maintain our Neutral rating on Vietnam’s fertilizer industry

This quarterly earnings report is a wrapped-up note of listed Vietnamese residential developers based on their financial statements. 1Q23 aggregated NPAT of 27 listed housing developers grew splendidly with 69.2% yoy revenue growth and 63% yoy net profit growth and VHM was a savior. The 2Q23F could be chaotic but full of anticipation with buoyant bond issuance dynamics amid the tepid launches and delaying bond payments. The recently ramping-up solutions and urges from Prime Minister to tackle the licensing bottlenecks could signal rising hope from the developers.

According to the GSO estimate, in Apr, the total agriculture export value was more than USD2.1bn (-2.9% mom, +23.8% yoy). Rice surpassed coffee to be the highest value exported product with USD574mn (+20% mom, +110% yoy), and it accounted for 27% of total agriculture export turnover (+5%p mom). Vegetables exporting benefits from China’s reopening policy, showed in the value increase of 30% yoy in 1Q23. China is preferring official quota to non-official quota border trade, thus putting pressure on improving vegetable quality.

We initiate Neutral rating on Cement industry. In 2023F, despite the reverse of 2022 negative factors, we still see some challenges for the industry amid high-borrowing rate environment and issues related to real estate developers and bond markets. Besides, the demand of global and main export markets are forecasted to be flat in 2023F. Along with it, the new tax rate on clinker export would hinder the revival of export channel. China re-opening is supposed to be a good catalyst for Vietnam cement producers, however, we still have HOLD ratings on HT1 and BCC as we see the market prices are fully reflected the revival outlook of these companies.

This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During Mar 23, we observed an contiuing improvement in total sales volume on m-o-m basis.

Vietnam is one of the top 3 largest shrimp exporting countries in the world, making up about 10.1% market share of the global shrimp exporting industry value. In 2023, shrimp market was projected to slow down. Yet, we believe that the Vietnamese shrimp industry's growth rate will increase till 2030.

We initiate an Overweight rating on Oil & Gas industry as we see multiple tailwinds in the middle-term and long-term outlook due to expectations of reactive upstream and midstream projects. We also have BUY ratings on PV Drilling (PVD VN) and PV GAS (GAS VN). PVD is expected to turn around and could enjoy high growth of earnings in the next 3 years due to higher jack-up rates, meanwhile, GAS is the largest listed company in the sector with strong finance ratios and many planning midstream projects to supply natural gas pipelines and import LNG to fill high power demand of Vietnam economy.