Research Center

Sugar sector got a spotlight, the aggregated sugar revenue growth rate in 2Q23 was 29.1% yoy in 2Q23 compared to 41.2% yoy in 1Q23. Meanwhile, net profit growth rate accelerated to 64.0% yoy in 2Q23 from the growth rate of 31.1% yoy seen in 1Q23. For 3Q23F, we expect the consumption of F&B product could improve slightly in 3Q23. Besides, we expect the gross margins of listed dairy companies to improve continuously qoq in 3Q23F due to enjoying cooling raw material prices.

This quarterly earnings report is a wrapped-up note of listed Vietnamese residential developers based on their financial statements. 1Q23 was awesome but 2Q23 was much more stunning when aggregated revenue/ NPAT of 27 listed housing developers grew splendidly with 104% yoy/18.1% qoq revenue and 163% yoy/ -11.2% qoq net profit . In contrast to tepid 2Q23 when the seasonal marketing campaigns or sales events commenced, we believe the market could welcome numerous activities including the soft launch of NLG, KDH, and PDR.

The aggregated PBT (27 banks) stayed flat at -2.6%yoy in 1Q23 and -5.7%QoQ, filling about 47% PBT guidance. Results were divergent with 11/27 outperformers. 1H23 credit growth rose 4.73%YTD, far behind 1st credit quota of 11% and the same period in previous years. 2Q23 NIM of most banks plunged yoy and qoq. Increasing 2Q23 bad debt wearied down the provision buffer. Expected 3Q23 credit growth could rise faster than 1H23. NIM could not be down furthermore amid the deposit rate decline and CASA improvement.

This quarterly earnings report on the Vietnam cement industry is intended to track the earning growth trend in the cement market. We witnessed earnings were back to positive in 2Q23 . The lower cost of input material was the main driver for the NPAT improvement in 2Q23. Earnings results varied among companies depending on their main markets, its input prices whilst companies have been under the impact of intense competition and weak market demand. Companies completed annual guidance at low level, especially profit’s one, despite that companies already set the cautious profit guidance for 2023F.

This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the earning growth trend in the steel market. We expect to see a challenging quarter for steel makers when the ASP is lower and the demand is expected to be weak due to rainy season. The input prices are expected to increase and margins are expected to be slightly hit in 3Q23. 2Q23 total sales volume is in line with our forecast (6.0mn tonnes vs 6.1 tonnes – KIS forecast). We expect to continue to see the weak demand in 3Q23F due to rainy season. We forecast the total sales volume in 3Q23F will be 5.8mn tonnes +8% yoy, -9% qoq.

This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During June 23, we observed the total consumption volume was slightly down 6.2% mom, 3.1% yoy to 2.0mn tonnes. The total sale volume was slumped due to weak global demand (11.5Mn tonnes, -17.5% yoy).

On Jun 28, State Bank of Vietnam issued Circular 06/2023/TT-NHNN amending Circular 39/20216-TT-NHNN on the lendinig activities with more prudent control and stricter requirement. We view positively since it helps enhance the credit quality control of banking systems and efficiency use of capital flow to economy. Besides, the new circular accommodates the deferred payment foreign loans.

According to the GSO estimate, in Jun, the total agriculture export value slightly increased to USD2.2bn (+5% mom, +21% yoy). Vegetable keeps being the highest value exported product with USD723mn (+45% mom, +189% yoy), and it accounted for 17% of total agriculture export turnover (+9%p mom), followed by rice (17%, -8%p mom) and coffee (17%, -3%p mom). In which, vegetable export to China in May-23 quintupled yoy to USD482mn, the figure also doubled mom.

According to Customs, the total May fertilizer export volume was nearly 155,000 tonnes (+17.5% mom, -3.13% yoy), equivalent to USD57mn (+17.36% mom, -46.32% yoy). The 5M23 Vietnam export pulled back in both volume 691,824 tonnes (-15.53% yoy) and value with USD289mn, -50.3% yoy. Observing the domestic market, urea price was trading around VND10,100/kg (+9% mom, -41% yoy) in May. The average urea price hovered around VND10,300/kg (-39.6% yoy) in 5M23. We maintain Neutral rating.