06
June
The downtrend is active and the current rebound phase is not strong enough to fade the selling pressure above which means volatility level would increase in upcoming sessions. In this case, investors should decrease the current positions on leading stocks and wait for more accurate trading signal which would come after the demand accumulation phase.
03
June
Long position on VN30F2206 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,270 pts level. (Hourly chart)
03
June
Despite the contraction, the VNIndex maintains its uptrend in the short term because of (1) closing above the 20-period moving average, and (2) increasing volume. Therefore, traders may open small long positions, and avoid buying on margin.
02
June
Urea/NPK/Phosphate/DAP production volume in May were 197,900/283,700/91,200/38,000 tonnes. Export volume jumped 54% yoy/7% mom to hit 160,000 tonnes, with the total value of USD106mn. On average, the export price was USD663/tonne (-3% mom and +91% yoy). Although it may be difficult to achieve the “idealy” export volume in Jan-22, exports in May was still relatively high compared to other months in 2021.
02
June
Long position on VN30F2206 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,270 pts level. (Hourly chart)
02
June
In the short term, the VNIndex maintains its uptrend because of (1) closing above the 20-period moving average, and (2) increasing volume. Therefore, traders may open small long positions, and avoid buying on margin.
01
June
We expect foreign ETFs to sell VRE the most with 9.2 million shares. On the buy-side, SHB and VND will be bought heavily with 8.1 million shares and 5.9 million shares.
01
June
Long position on VN30F2206 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,270 pts level. (Hourly chart)
01
June
Despite the contraction, the VNIndex maintains its uptrend because of (1) closing above the 20-period moving average, and (2) increasing volume. Therefore, traders may open small long positions, and avoid buying on margin.
31
May
Although trade activities experience a slowdown under the struggling global supply chain, May’s figures show that economic recovery remains solid with impressive growth in domestic consumption. We forecast that domestic demand, backing by the pent-up demand, fiscal support, and promising spending from foreign visitors, could be a key factor in economic growth in the next couple of months. On the downside, registered FDI hit a new low this year, raising concerns about fewer investment opportunities in a time of global monetary policy divergence and geopolitical uncertainty.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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