20
June
Market ended up to be net bought. Demand was mainly attracted by Financials, Materials, and Industrials whilst selling activity was absorbed the most by RConsumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary. With ETF flow, money inflow across Vietnam continued to slow down. Net inflow was USD13mn. The positive flow of money was mainly driven by Fubon FTSE Vietnam.
20
June
On Jun 17, we tuned in to GVR’s AGM presentation briefing for the upcoming business plan. Rubber Group of Vietnam is among the biggest state-owned rubber producers with 400,000ha rubber land: Laos and Cambodia occupy 115,000ha, Southeast regions of Vietnam form 150,000-160,000ha, Central Highland accounts for 70,000. GVR’s rubber capacity stood at 1.51tonne/ha in 2021. Hit by swirls of raw material price rally and freight rate upturn, GVR prudently guides a flattish NPAT of VND5,340bn based on a 4.8% yoy revenue growth.
20
June
GMC targets a VND620bn revenue (-42% yoy) and a VND60bn NPAT (+9% yoy) in 2022F. The company will pay 2021’s dividend by cash at 50%, in which 1st payment of 20% will be on June 24th and the 2nd payment of 30% is expected to be in 3Q22F. A 50% cash dividend at par could bring an appealing dividend yield of 22.2%.
20
June
The downside risk is intact in the short term due to low liquidity. Besides, the VNIndex continues to close below the 10- and 20-period moving average. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for the next signal.
20
June
Although the 1,200 pts zone is still held, the downtrend is still active. In this case, investors should decrease the current positions on leading stocks and wait for more accurate trading signal which would come after the demand accumulation phase.
20
June
Selling pressure is still strong and demand is not strong enough to faded current bearish swing. In this case, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for more accurate trading signal.
17
June
On Jun 16, we attended TCL’s AGM presentation briefing for the upcoming business plan. TCL currently held 92%, and 65% of market shares in the port operating segment in the Ho Chi Minh region, and Cai Mep area, respectively. TCL also occupied merely 50% of the container for international trades segment. On a prudent hope for a robust revival, TCL guides NPAT to be VND117.7bn, +3.7% yoy driven by a revenue estimate of VND1,242.5bn, +3.4% yoy. A 42% cash dividend at par could be paid in Aug, 2022, equivalent to a dividend yield of 11.6%.
17
June
The selling pressure near 1,300 pts zone needs more time to be absorbed and the instrument could not pierce this zone on this trading day. In this case, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for more accurate trading signal.
17
June
Despite the strong rebound yesterday, the downside risk is intact in the short term due to low liquidity. Besides, the VNIndex continues to close below the 10- and 20-period moving average. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for the next signal.
16
June
Indirectly owned by Duc Giang Chemicals JSC (DGC VN, Non-rated) with a 51% stake, Vietnam Apatite Phosphorus Company (PAT) is going to list on the UPCoM bourse on Jun 17th with its 25mn shares. Riding on the commodity upswing, PAT stands out and gains the spotlight.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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