08
June
The VNIndex maintains its uptrend in the short term because of (1) closing above the 20-period moving average, and (2) stable volume (3) high demand on low price. Therefore, traders may open long positions, and avoid buying on margin.
The prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment remained stellar with 23.4% yoy and 0.6% mom, to USD3.1bn in May. The US persisted as the largest textile and garment importer with a USD1.6bn, +23.5% yoy/0.7% mom and accounting for 51% of Vietnam’s total textile and garment export value. Overall, in 5M22, Vietnam’s textile and...
07
June
Last week, trading activity slowed down across the covered warrant market. With foreign trading activity, the market kept ending up to be net with the increase in selling activity. Notably, covered warrants which have FPT as the underlying asset has attracted most of trading activity for 8 consecutive weeks, mainly driven by CFPT2203 (9.4%).
07
June
May exports of rice/cassava/rubber were USD386mn/USD119mn/USD181mn, leaping by 40%/13%/28% mom and 14%/38%/27% yoy. Total agricultural plants formed a USD1,789mn export value (+10% mom and +13% yoy) and rice constituted the biggest share with 22%, followed by coffee (19%), cashew (18%), vegetables (17%) and rubber (10%). In the context that countries are rushing to ensure food security, we expect Viet Nam could ramp up agricultural export output in the next months.
07
June
Construction steel stole the spotlight with the sales volume posted at 393,000 tonnes, +32.0% mom and +21.2% yoy. The 4 price cuts in May have started to show the effectiveness for construction products.
07
June
Long position on VN30F2206 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,270 pts level. (Hourly chart)
07
June
The VNIndex maintains its uptrend in the short term because of (1) closing above the 20-period moving average, and (2) stable volume. Therefore, traders may open small long positions, and avoid buying on margin.
06
June
Market ended up to be net bought. Demand was mainly attracted by Financials, IT, and Consumer Staples whilst selling activity was absorbed the most by Utilities and Consumer Discretionary. With ETF flow, money inflow across Vietnam remained at high level. Net inflow was USD85mn. The positive flow of money was mainly driven by the massive demand on VFMVN Diamond.
06
June
Despite the cautious market sentiment, the VNIndex maintains its uptrend in the short term because of (1) closing above the 20-period moving average, and (2) increasing volume. Therefore, traders may open small long positions, and avoid buying on margin.
06
June
Long position on VN30F2206 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,270 pts level. (Hourly chart)
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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