23
May
Market ended up to be net sold but selling pressure was not strong. Selling activity has turned around to be absorbed the most by Financials, Real Estate, and Materials whilst demand kept focusing on Consumer Staples. With ETF flow, money inflow across Vietnam reached the all-time high. Net inflow was USD115mn. The positive flow of money was mainly absorbed by VFMVN Diamond and Fubon FTSE Vietnam.
23
May
According to the MoIT, after two months that had been disrupted in exporting, fertilizer export volume in Apr jumped 28% mom/15% yoy to hit 115,000 tonnes, with the total value of USD78mn. On average, the export price was USD678/tonne (+25% mom and +105% yoy) in Apr. In which, Viet Nam exported to Cambodia the most with the market share of about 41%.
23
May
The downside risk is still intact in the short term due to low liquidity. That means the bullish trend is not confirmed. Therefore, traders should wait for the next signals and stay on the sidelines.
22
May
Consolidation phase has stepped in which provides time for demand accumulation phase. Thus, traders should continue to stay on the sidelines and wait for the next accurate trading signal which would come after the consolidation/fluctuation phase.
22
May
The downtrend is active and the current rebound phase is not strong enough to fade the selling pressure above which means volatility level would increase in upcoming sessions. In this case, investors should decrease the current positions on leading stocks and wait for more accurate trading signal which would come after the demand accumulation phase.
20
May
Excluding Vimedimex with a 50.1% yoy revenue drop since VMD specializes in drug distribution, 1Q22 aggregated revenue of 28 listed pharma producers climbed by 11.8% yoy, while aggregated net profit surged by 27.4% yoy. Looking forward to 2Q22F, demand for drugs could revive both through ETC (the drug channel for treatment, which patients can only buy at hospitals) and OTC (drugstores) when everything is back to normal. The demand for vitamins, antibiotics, and functional foods will expect to increase. The need for specific drugs used in hospitals will soon climb as hospitals start accepting patients again
20
May
Although the credit growth still outperformed the deposit growth in April, the liquidity pressure in the money market to meet regulatory ratios has eased, mainly attributed to the significant decreases in short-term interbank rates. April also witnessed significant selling pressure in the government bond market amid higher inflationary pressure and foreign government bond yields. We predict that this development of the fixed income market will continue in the next month.
20
May
The reopening of all industries led oil & gas consumption to grow in 1Q22. Based on our collection, the 1Q22 aggregate earnings growth edged up 35.1% yoy in 1Q22 vs 31.7% yoy growth in 4Q21. Otherwise, the revenue growth rate in 1Q22 was still brisk at around 66.7% yoy thanks to the higher oil prices. Average selling prices were the biggest impact on revenue growth engines, in our view. The high global oil prices will lead earnings of midstream and downstream such as GAS, and BSR to grow strongly in 2Q22F.
20
May
Consolidation phase has stepped in which provides time for demand accumulation phase. Thus, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next accurate trading signal which would come after the consolidation/fluctuation phase.
20
May
Despite the bullish market in the short term, the liquidity is still low level, implying the bullish trend is not confirmed. Therefore, traders should wait for the next signals and stay on the sidelines.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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