Tiếng Việt
普通话
13
May
Market commentary: Retest last bottom
Based on the crash, the downside risk is still intact due to high volatility. Traders should wait for the next signals and stay on the sidelines.
Research Center
12
May
Daily derivatives: Approaching the solid sell zone
As the bearish momentum is still strong and there is no favorable trading point, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next accurate trading signal.
12
May
Market commentary: Retest 1,300-pts threshold
Despite the second recovery, the downside risk is still intact as high volatility. Traders should wait for the next signals and stay on the sidelines.
11
May
Steel – Sector Note – Temporary material cost retreat amid tension
This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the earning growth trend in the steel market. In 1Q22, we saw aggregated revenue growth persisted with double digits while NPATMI growth was muted due to the higher base seen in 1Q21 and thinner yoy gross margin marred by input cost inflation. In 2Q22, we expect to see a slower pace in domestic demand revival in 2Q22F due to the sharp steel price rise in 4M22. The temporary global economic weakness caused by COVID-19 restrictions in China eased the prices of steel products and some input materials. Therefore, companies, especially flat steel exporters, can consider the temporary decline as an opportunity for lower-cost inventories.
11
May
VNM-Brief-HOLD-Light at the end of the tunnel
On May 10, we tuned in to 1Q22 VNM’s analyst meeting which features its 1Q22 operational updates and sheds some lights on rebounding revenue and expanding gross margin. VNM pegged domestic market revenue at 11,658 (+ 4.3% yoy) contributed by parent’s domestic revenue growth of 3.5% yoy (VND10,234bn) and MCM’s revenue growth of 8.6% yoy (VND675bn) in 1Q22. The company stockpiled raw materials until Aug at a costlier price. Given the prices of imported milk powder forward contracts are cooling down, VNM expects to benefit at least from 3Q22F. We maintain a HOLD rating underpinned by a sluggish outlook in 2022F-23F
11
May
Market commentary: Banking makes market gains
Despite the recovery, the downside risk is still intact as high volatility. Traders should wait for the next signals and stay on the sidelines.
11
May
Daily derivatives: Intraday rebound phase
As the bearish momentum is still strong and there is no favorable trading point, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next accurate trading signal.
10
May
Covered warrant 04-06 May: FPT absorbs most trading activity for 4 consecutive weeks
Last week, trading activity dropped across the covered warrant market. Foreign trading activity also dropped and the market continued to end up to be net sold. However, foreign selling pressure has start to slow down remarkably. Notably, covered warrants which have FPT as the underlying asset has attracted most of trading activity for 4 consecutive weeks.
10
May
Daily derivatives: Lower low is formed
As the bearish momentum is still strong and there is no favorable selling point, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next accurate trading signal.
10
May
Market commentary: Sell-off
In the short term, the market sentiment has become pessimistic as the downside risk is still intact. Traders should wait for the next signals and stay on the sidelines.
Featured Articles
15
March
Point Break
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Outlook 2022 – The Big Uptrend
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
Time to bet on economic recovery?
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Fragile hope of recovery path under the worst outbreak
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
INFLATION: A transient or long-lasting shock?
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.