28
February
The total agriculture export value was more than USD1.6bn in Feb-23 (+7% mom, +39% yoy). In which, coffee remained the highest value exported product with USD393mn (+12% mom, +29% yoy), and it accounted for 24% of total agriculture export turnover, followed by vegetables (21%) and rice (14%). Coffee exporters also recorded a growth of 13% mom in terms of volume, to 180,000 tons.
16
February
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During Jan 23, we observed the significant drop in total sales volume due to long Tet holiday in Vietnam.
15
February
The seafood industry exported USD2.5bn (-7% yoy and -6% qoq) in 4Q22 due to the decrease of pangasius and shrimp export by -15.4% yoy and -13% yoy, also both exports decreased by -15% qoq, respectively. As a result, 23 listed seafood exporters recorded a VND12,356bn revenue (-10.9% yoy) and VND791bn NPAT (-16.6% yoy) in 4Q22. We estimate that seafood exporters’ revenue growth would slow down since lower seafood export volume in most markets in 1Q23. Yet, export to China seems brighter outlook.
13
February
According to Customs, in Jan, total fertilizer export volume was more than 127,000 tonnes (-66% yoy, -4% mom), equivalent to USD64mn (-79% yoy, -2% mom). Total urea/NPK production in Jan was nearly 226,000/243,000 tonnes (+1%/-26% yoy, +2%/7% mom), respectively. In 2022, Vietnam exported USD1.2bn of fertilizer (+113% yoy).
10
February
This quarterly earnings report is a wrapped up note of listed Vietnamese residential developers based on their financial statement. The 4Q22 recorded some anomalies when aggregated NPAT of 27 developers declined by 44% yoy and the loss event transmitted. Since 1Q23F is the off-peak season, we do not think the market could welcome multiple marketing campaigns or a booming 1Q23F business results. About the bond payment, more and more bondholders could declare their inability to pay the due principal/interest in 1Q23F.
10
February
According to the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's textile and garment exports experienced a decrease in growth for the first time in 2022, with a -9.1% yoy decline, totaling USD8.5bn in 4Q22. The textile and garment industry is expected to face significant challenges in 1Q23F due to a decrease in demand for garments and high inventory levels at major foreign retailers such as Nike and Adidas.
10
February
The prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment dropped 37% yoy and 22.4% mom to USD2.3bn in Jan. The export to the US (the largest textile and garment export market of Vietnam) in Jan fell 46.4% yoy and 21.5% mom to USD992mn. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s fiber and yarn export value slid 52.4% yoy and 30.7% mom to USD226mn in January with China, the largest fiber and yarn importer of Vietnam, recorded USD87mn (-58.5% yoy/-38.9% mom).
10
February
As ENSO is forecast to enter neutral phase in 2023, thermal power is a perfect alternative for shrinking hydropower output. We pick NT2 as our favorite due to expectation of decent results. On 7 Jan, MOIT issued framework for prices of transitional renewable energy projects which are much lower than previous FiT prices.
09
February
The income of Vietnam workers was impacted by still sluggish export activities, thus we expect consumption of beer and dairy will continue to face the challenge in 1Q23F. However, we expect continuously the gross margins of listed dairy and beer companies to improve in 1Q23F due to enjoying cooling raw material prices. For sugar sector, we expect sales could grow up and improve gross margin due to higher selling prices.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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