12
September
In August 2022, Vietnam’s prelim seafood export recorded USD917mn, up 56.0% yoy mainly assisted by the low base in 2021. Pangasius export increased 85.9% yoy while shrimp export decreased 4.7% yoy in August since shrimp export strongly reduced 33% yoy and 18% yoy in US and China markets, respectively.
09
September
Flat-steel sector has overperformed the broader market throughout 2021 as they have benefitted from global supply disruption caused by COVID-19. In 2022, however, we reiterate a Neutral rating on the Flat-steel sector as we see multiple headwinds upcoming amid high-inflation and central banks' policies concerns.
08
September
The prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment remained robust with a growth of 51.1% yoy and 8.7% mom, reaching USD4bn in August. The US persisted as the largest textile and garment importer with a USD1.74bn, +31.6% yoy/-3.0% mom, accounting for 43.6% of Vietnam's total textile and garment export value. Overall, in 8M22, Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover soared 24.5% yoy to USD26.3bn.
31
August
Retail performance in 2Q22 witnessed a remarkable improvement, after the government’s successful control of Covid-19 and gradual recovery of the economy. The reopening also ensures the fluent input flows that gradually balance the GPM to the normal level before Covid-19. Retailers in informatiom communication technology (ICT), automobiles, personal goods, airport witnessed a revenue growth of 13/35/83/199% yoy in 2Q22.
29
August
In Aug, the total agriculture export value was USD1,610mn (-4% mom but +15% yoy). In detail, except for cashew/tea/cassava, main export products such as rice and rubber recorded a reduction in export value (-7% mom and -7% mom). The serious drought in China could lead to a food shortage in this country. Therefore, there has a chance for Vietnam to boost the rice export volume into this market. In 7M22, China accounted for about 13% total rice export volume of Vietnam (after the Philippines with 49%).
23
August
In 2Q22, the financials sector index dropped 24.6%, in which securities companies index was down 44.4% amid low trading conditions and VNINDEX’s fall. Sector revenue in 2Q22 stayed flat yoy with 15,878bn (-12.3% qoq, +0.1% yoy) while net profit was unpleasant by a decrease 57% in yoy and 63.4% qoq. There were 7 over 25 securities in our research recording accounting losses. To achieve moderate results in 2H22F, the ADTV should stay at VND25,000bn per day and margin balance should stay above VND90,000bn. Shortened settlement cycle, implementation of new KRX system and the movement of VNINDEX are supporting points for the remaining 2022.
23
August
In Jul, the total fertilizer export volume was 112,705 tonnes (-55% mom and +30% yoy), equivalent to nearly USD75mn (-53% mom and +121 yoy). Although the export volume shrunk in Jul, the export prices were still higher than the Jun level (USD665/tonne vs USD644/tonne). In 7M22, Vietnam exported more than 1.1mn tonnes (+42% yoy) of fertilizer with USD722mn (+174% yoy). In which, Cambodia was the largest export market with 298 thousand tonnes (-13% yoy) and more than USD160mn (+33% yoy).
19
August
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During July 22, it’s no surprised that we observed the weak demand in both domestic and export markets. We expect the trend to continue in next months.
17
August
In 2Q22, hydropower volume soared up 51% yoy thanks to high rainfall levels and rising global coal & fuel oil prices which made coal thermal and gas-fired power output plunged 26% yoy and 7% yoy. Despite that, some thermal makers namely HND, QTP, NT2 profit still have positive profit growth thanks to rising selling price. We expect the favorable weather condition in 3Q22 will be beneficial to hydropower generators in the North and central region.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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