03
February
Despite the recovery, the downside risk is still intact as the VNIndex closes below the 1,100-pts threshold. That implies a downtrend in the short term. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for the next signals.
03
February
For new long positions, traders should wait for the short-term correction/consolidation phase on VN30F2302. (Hourly chart)
02
February
In 2022, TLG’s net revenue rose by 32% yoy to VND3.5tn. NPAT also grew 45% yoy to VND401bn. TLG fulfilled 108% of revenue guidance and 143% of NPAT guidance.
02
February
For new long positions, traders should wait for the short-term correction/consolidation phase on VN30F2302. (Hourly chart)
02
February
The downside risk is still intact as the VNIndex decreases strongly with high volume. That implies a downtrend in the short term. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for the next signals.
01
February
Becamex released the 4Q22 on Jan 31, featuring a VND879bn revenue (-71.7 yoy, -61.2% qoq) and a VND7bn NPAT (-97.9% yoy, -252.2% qoq). The core property segement impeded the whole picture with a VND233bn revenue (-91.1% yoy, -87.4% qoq) while the other segment grew sustainably. We attribute to the booking timing that resulted in the miss of pipeline. However, the valuation of 49.5x TTM is justified given the ineffective non-core businesses, and potential conflict of minority interest,in our view.
SBV enhances its liquidity support via repo and T-bill instruments to ensure a stable money market heading to a long traditional Tet. Interbank rates, therefore, spot nearly to the 6% level of the interest rate corridor. Interbank USDVND continued to posit around the buying price of SBV, while the central bank did not provide any new adjustment, implying that SBV could restore the FX reserve further. As per future development, the money market would remain stable despite a long traditional Tet due to SBV’s liquidity injection. However, Fed will provide more rate hikes soon in February FOMC, reducing the interest rate spread between the dong and USD. Hence, we predict that USDVND could rebound in the coming weeks.
01
February
Vietnam Rubber Group released the 4Q22 on Jan 31, featuring a VND9,012.7bn revenue (-5.1 yoy, +54.1% qoq) and a VND1,310.9bn NPAT (-14% yoy, +31.9% qoq). The core rubbber production was double attacked by slower demand (revenue VND6,710, -9.8% yoy) and contracted gross margin (20.7%, -7.4%p yoy). However, the other segments (value-added rubber, industrial park operation, utility) fared well, revitalizing the whole GVR's 4Q22 result. Despite the bet on divestment plan being the new fuel engine of 2023-24F earnings growth, we feel that core business has yet been proactively improved. Furthermore, GVR's 11.2x TTM PE is not a real bargain if compared with other blue chips.
01
February
DPM posted 4Q22 business results with a VND3,900bn revenue (-23% yoy, +0.4% qoq) and a VND1,140bn NPAT (-32% yoy, +14% qoq), fulfilling 76%/123% of our revenue/NPAT forecast. In 2022, DPM recorded VND18,627bn in revenue (+46% yoy) and VND5,605bn in NPAT (+87% yoy). The 2022 results fulfilling 94%/104% of our revenue/NPAT forecasts.
01
February
Although the high demand is around the 1,100-pts threshold, the downside risk is still intact. If the index closes below the support, the uptrend is reversed. Therefore, traders should wait for the confirmed signals before resuming open long positions.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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