Tiếng Việt
普通话
15
February
Daily derivatives: No sign of demand
Bearish momentum is strong and the instrument is testing 1,050 pts area. Traders should wait for the reaction of VN30F2302 near 1,050 pts zone to define the next market leg. (Hourly chart)
Research Center
15
February
Market commentary: Bearish market?
In the short term, the downtrend is dominant as the VNIndex closes below the 100-period and 50-period moving averages. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals.
14
February
A soft liquidity condition lowers money market funding costs
The money market this week shows us a soft liquidity condition attributable to lower demand for borrowing in the manufacturing and real estate sectors in the first months of 2023. Interest rates dropped notably, especially for short tenors, when SBV offered more T-bill contracts with a reduced winning rate. In addition, the G-bond yield recorded one more week of reduction likely due to the principle of an alternative channel to lending activity. SBV seems to pilot a reduction in funding costs for the money market in its attempt to lower the interest burden for local enterprises. However, a lower overnight rate resulted in a negative spread in interest rates between the local currency and USD, putting more pressure on the stability of foreign exchange in the coming weeks. Therefore, the development of the FX market will hint us SBVs’ stance in the near future.
14
February
Market commentary: Selling pressure on Real Estate
The VNIndex closes below the 100-period and 50-period moving averages, implying a downtrend in the short term. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals.
14
February
Daily derivatives: Demand is still weak
Bearish momentum is strong and the instrument is testing 1,050 pts area. Traders should wait for the reaction of VN30F2302 near 1,050 pts zone to define the next market leg. (Hourly chart)
13
February
Covered warrant 06-10 Feb: STB covered warrants keeps most of foreign interest
Last week, trading volume remained solid across the covered warrant market with trading value recorded at VND52bn (-10% wow). By underlying asset, covered warrants which have HPG and STB as the underlying asset kept attracting the most of trading interest from both domestic and foreigner. Notably, foreign trading activity has reversed, ended up to be net sold with net selling value recorded at VND2.4bn.
13
February
Fertilizer – Brief – [NEUTRAL] – The Golden time has passed
According to Customs, in Jan, total fertilizer export volume was more than 127,000 tonnes (-66% yoy, -4% mom), equivalent to USD64mn (-79% yoy, -2% mom). Total urea/NPK production in Jan was nearly 226,000/243,000 tonnes (+1%/-26% yoy, +2%/7% mom), respectively. In 2022, Vietnam exported USD1.2bn of fertilizer (+113% yoy).
13
February
Fundflow 06- 10 Feb: Inflow shows signs of weakness
Foreign demand has slowed down but the market kept ending up to be net bought. With ETF flow, inflow across Vietnam kept decreasing, recording at USD9mn, a 4-month low. Inflow across Vietnam has slowed down for 2 consecutive weeks as well as inflow has not spread to major ETFs which is the sign of weakness. Thus, there is the high probability for outflow to occur in upcoming weeks
13
February
Market commentary: Retest the 100-period moving average
The downside risk is still intact in the short term as the VNIndex retests the 50-period and 100-period moving averages. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals.
13
February
Chart of the day: Selling signals?
In this case, the downside is still intact due to high selling pressure around 1,100-pts threshold. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals.
Featured Articles
15
March
Point Break
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Outlook 2022 – The Big Uptrend
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
Time to bet on economic recovery?
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Fragile hope of recovery path under the worst outbreak
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
INFLATION: A transient or long-lasting shock?
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.