02
March
Although the VNIndex crosses above the 100-period moving average, the VNIndex closes below short-term moving averages such as the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, implying a downtrend. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines.
01
March
The money market likely reflects SBV’s prudence under a more hawkish Fed in the hike rate trajectory. Although liquidity condition becomes soft under the slowing lending activity in the first market, the central bank offers longer-term T-bill contracts at a higher yield to preserve the dong’s attractiveness. Therefore, we expect SBV’s stance to remain prudent until Fed’s rate hike trajectory is less hawkish.
01
March
New short position is risky due to the high volatile market as well as long positions are still not confirmed. Thus, traders should wait for more accurate trading signal in upcoming sessions (Hourly chart).
01
March
Despite the recovery, the VNIndex closes below significant moving averages such as the 100-period and 50-period moving averages, showing a short-term downtrend. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines.
28
February
Vietnam’s economic picture remains gloomy after the Tet, although witnessing improvement in several sectors. The modest growths in domestic production and trade activities are primarily due to more working days than in the same period last year. After adjusting for the working day number, the impact of the weak global demand on the economy reveals predominant. On the upside, domestic consumption remains strong under the first normalized spring season. However, the impact of the wealth effect and income prospects could be negative under the current high-interest rate environment, raising our concerns about the motivation for economic growth for the first quarter.
28
February
The total agriculture export value was more than USD1.6bn in Feb-23 (+7% mom, +39% yoy). In which, coffee remained the highest value exported product with USD393mn (+12% mom, +29% yoy), and it accounted for 24% of total agriculture export turnover, followed by vegetables (21%) and rice (14%). Coffee exporters also recorded a growth of 13% mom in terms of volume, to 180,000 tons.
28
February
The VNIndex crossed below significant moving averages such as the 100-period and 50-period moving averages, showing a short-term downtrend. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines.
28
February
Last week, trading volume remained near 4 weeks average (112mn shares) across the covered warrant market. Besides, trading value also decreased, recording at VND46bn due to the correction period. By underlying asset, covered warrants which have STB as the underlying asset continued to attract the most of trading interest from both domestic and foreign investors, in which STB covered warrant recorded nearly 48% of foreign trading volume.
28
February
New short position is risky due to the high volatile market as well as long positions are still not confirmed. Thus, traders should wait for more accurate trading signal in upcoming sessions (Hourly chart).
27
February
Foreign demand decreased significantly, faded by the solid selling pressure and pushing the market to end up to be net sold. Net sell value was USD55mn. With ETF flow, inflow across Vietnam kept decreasing, recording at USD1mn, a 5-month low. Notably, the inflow diminished strongly across major ETFs such as Fubon ETF, FTSE Vietnam, VanEck Vietnam, VFMVN Diamond, and VNFin Lead.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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