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10
March
On Mar 10, Hoa Sen Group (HSG) held the Annual General Meeting. The company sets conservative FY2023 guidance with 2 scenario due to the uncertainty from geopolitical conflicts and global high borrowing-rate environment.
10
March
New short position is risky due to the high volatile market as well as long positions are still not confirmed. Thus, traders should wait for more accurate trading signal in upcoming sessions (Hourly chart).
10
March
The VNIndex closes above the 1,050-pts threshold, showing the bullish trend. However, the selling pressure is still intact around high prices such as the 1,100-pts threshold. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines.
09
March
The prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment slightly increased 11.1% yoy and 1.9% mom to USD2.3bn in February. The export to the US (the largest textile and garment export market of Vietnam) fell 6.7% yoy and 2.8% mom to USD964mn, making up 42% of Vietnam's total textile and garment export value. We think 1Q23F is full of difficulties for the textile industry when it could suffer a dip in apparel demand, especially in the US market. However, we expect that the outlook will be brighter thanks to the recovery of orders in 2Q23F.
09
March
FTSE Russell announced that the FTSE Vietnam Index will remove TCH, PDR, STB, and PLX while it will add SHB and EIB in this review. The new weights will be effective on 20 Mar 2023.
09
March
New short position is risky due to the high volatile market as well as long positions are still not confirmed. Thus, traders should wait for more accurate trading signal in upcoming sessions (Hourly chart).
09
March
The VNIndex retests the 1,050-pts threshold, showing the bullish trend. However, the selling pressure is still intact around high prices such as the 1,100-pts threshold. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines.
08
March
New short position is risky due to the high volatile market as well as long positions are still not confirmed. Thus, traders should wait for more accurate trading signal in upcoming sessions (Hourly chart).
08
March
Despite the second recovery, the selling pressure appears around high prices such as the 1,100-pts threshold. That shows the downside risk. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines.
07
March
DXY was muted this week on the lack of highly impacted U.S. releases, while funding costs for the dong witnessed a strong rebound under the persistent SBV’s liquidity withdrawal. Hence, USDVND made a notable gain after six consecutive weeks of decline. Vietnam’s central bank likely continues to lean more on global development, especially the Fed's monetary tendency, to decide its OMO implementation despite a soft liquidity condition under the slowing credit performance in the first market. Therefore, we predict the central bank will sustain high funding costs in the money market heading into the coming talks of Fed officials next week.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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