21
February
The VNIndex shows positive signals in the short term as the index closes above the significant moving average with high liquidity. However, the downside risk is intact around the 1,100-pts zone. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines. Besides, and they may only open long positions if the index crosses the 1,100-pts threshold.
21
February
Long VN30F2303 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,050 pts level. (Hourly chart)
21
February
Last week, trading volume slowed down across the covered warrant market due to the market unclear trend. By underlying asset, covered warrants which have STB as the underlying asset continued to attract the most of trading interest from both domestic and foreign investors, in which STB covered warrant recorded nearly 71% of foreign trading volume.
20
February
Foreign selling pressure has overwhelmed supply and led the market to ended up to be net sold. Net selling value was USD15mn. With ETF flow, inflow across Vietnam has improved, recording at USD11mn, mainly focused on FTSE Vietnam ETF. Inflow across Vietnam has slowed down for 3 consecutive weeks, which showed the sign of weakness. Thus, there is the high probability for outflow to occur in upcoming weeks.
20
February
Overall, the management anticipates that net revenue and net profit in 2023F will rise by 14% yoy and 15% yoy respectively, more significantly from 2H23, along with the expected to be lower interest rate and cooling of inflation. More specifically, DGW expects mobile phone sales in 2023F will improve by 13% yoy, office equipment sales up by 17% yoy, home appliance sale up by 65% yoy and the consumer good sale to surge by 157%.
20
February
On Feb 17, we tuned in to the AM of BCG to be covered with their 2022 recap related to business results and operation climate. What we felt relived is the enhancement of balance sheet with a debt/equity ratio plunging to 1.1x as of end-4Q22 and less pressure of due bond payment in the short term. However, we still stay skeptical on their escalating debt, potential dilution risk, and ample sensitivity to the hospitality property market where the majority of BCG’s projects are tourism/resorts.
20
February
Bearish momentum still exists and the instrument is testing 1,050 pts area. Traders should wait for the reaction of VN30F2303 near 1,050 pts zone to define the next market leg. New position should be stalked when consolidation phase is near the end. (Hourly chart)
20
February
Despite the third recovery, the downtrend is dominant in the short term because of high selling pressure at high-level prices. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals.
20
February
There is the strong supply near 1,120 pts zone as well as market leg is unclear. Therefore, investors should reduce the positions on leading stocks and wait for more accurate signal for the upcoming market leg.
17
February
Accumulating 2022, MWG’s net revenue went up by 8% yoy to VND133tn, MWG had met 95% of the revenue guidance. In 2023F, TGDD&DMX keep being the cash cow, contributing 75%-80% of MWG’s revenue, BHX is expected to contribute 20%-25% of MWG’s revenue. MWG will restrict operation of AVASports and Bluetronics due to low potential to focus on other key business in 2023.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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