Research Center

The short-term uptrend from Nov 2022 may be reversed as (1) business activities of companies face difficulties (reduced net income) due to the slowdown of the global economy (2) pressure of the maturity of corporate bonds in 2023 with a net value of VND82tn in 2Q23 and VND114tn in 3Q23. We expect the market may resume to a bearish trend in the short term and then form an important bottom from May 2023 to Sep 2023. The target price of this bottom is a range of 780-910 points.

Bearish momentum still exists and the instrument is testing 1,050 pts area. Traders should wait for the reaction of VN30F2303 near 1,050 pts zone to define the next market leg. New position should be stalked when consolidation phase is near the end. (Hourly chart)

Despite the recovery, the downtrend is dominant in the short term as the VNIndex closes below the 20-period moving averages. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals.

Total Jan steel sales volume posted 85,232 tonnes, dropping by 40.9% yoy and 27.6% mom amid long Tet holiday. The coated steel export volume (29,304 tonnes) was down significantly by 62.6% yoy and 36.4% mom.

Total Jan steel sales volume posted 43,370 tonnes, falling by 34.6% mom and 53.8% you amid long Tet holiday. The coated steel export volume (20,513 tonnes) stumbled 69.7% yoy and decreased by 25.6% mom.

This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During Jan 23, we observed the significant drop in total sales volume due to long Tet holiday in Vietnam.

Retail sales revenues accounted for a large proportion of Vietnam’s GDP structure, playing an important role in economic growth, and is expected to maintain its two digits expansion thanks to the golden population structure and fast-growing economy.

Bearish momentum is strong and the instrument is testing 1,050 pts area. Traders should wait for the reaction of VN30F2302 near 1,050 pts zone to define the next market leg. New position should be stalked on the upcoming contract (VN30F2303). (Hourly chart)

The downtrend is dominant in the short term as the VNIndex closes below the 100-period and 50-period moving averages. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals.

The seafood industry exported USD2.5bn (-7% yoy and -6% qoq) in 4Q22 due to the decrease of pangasius and shrimp export by -15.4% yoy and -13% yoy, also both exports decreased by -15% qoq, respectively. As a result, 23 listed seafood exporters recorded a VND12,356bn revenue (-10.9% yoy) and VND791bn NPAT (-16.6% yoy) in 4Q22. We estimate that seafood exporters’ revenue growth would slow down since lower seafood export volume in most markets in 1Q23. Yet, export to China seems brighter outlook.