Tiếng Việt
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13
February
Daily derivatives: Bearish swing
Bearish momentum is strong and the instrument is testing 1,050 pts area. Traders should wait for the reaction of VN30F2302 near 1,050 pts zone to define the next market leg. (Hourly chart)
Research Center
10
February
Housing property – Note- [Neutral]- Actions speak out loud
This quarterly earnings report is a wrapped up note of listed Vietnamese residential developers based on their financial statement. The 4Q22 recorded some anomalies when aggregated NPAT of 27 developers declined by 44% yoy and the loss event transmitted. Since 1Q23F is the off-peak season, we do not think the market could welcome multiple marketing campaigns or a booming 1Q23F business results. About the bond payment, more and more bondholders could declare their inability to pay the due principal/interest in 1Q23F.
10
February
NVL-Brief-[NONRATED]-Bless Novaland’s heart
On Feb 10, 2023 Novaland held a meeting which gave the audience a walkthrough of the its restricting plan and cash flow. - The company did not hint a glimpse of relief about its due debt payment source but reassures us about its on progress restricting plan. To save money, NVL even procrastinates the interest subsidy program in those current projects and promises to pay back when signing the official contract.
10
February
Textile & Garment – Note – [Nonrated] – Crossing the hurdles
According to the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's textile and garment exports experienced a decrease in growth for the first time in 2022, with a -9.1% yoy decline, totaling USD8.5bn in 4Q22. The textile and garment industry is expected to face significant challenges in 1Q23F due to a decrease in demand for garments and high inventory levels at major foreign retailers such as Nike and Adidas.
10
February
Textile & Garment – Brief – [Nonrated] – An uphill battle
The prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment dropped 37% yoy and 22.4% mom to USD2.3bn in Jan. The export to the US (the largest textile and garment export market of Vietnam) in Jan fell 46.4% yoy and 21.5% mom to USD992mn. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s fiber and yarn export value slid 52.4% yoy and 30.7% mom to USD226mn in January with China, the largest fiber and yarn importer of Vietnam, recorded USD87mn (-58.5% yoy/-38.9% mom).
10
February
SAB – Brief – [Nonrated] – Increased shares in 2 affiliated companies
SAB recorded a solid revenue of VND10.0tn revenue (+11.4% yoy, +16.1% yoy) due to high demand due to football events such as AFF, World Cup, and the early Lunar new year holiday, and NPAT-MI of VND1.0tn (-20.3% yoy, -22.3 qoq) owing to a sharp increase of selling expenses. For 2022, SAB revenue and NPAT-MI increased by 33% yoy and 42% yoy to VND35.2tn and VND5.2tn, respectively, fulfilling 101%/113% of guidance.
10
February
Power-Note-[Non-rated]-2023F thermal power: Great expectation
As ENSO is forecast to enter neutral phase in 2023, thermal power is a perfect alternative for shrinking hydropower output. We pick NT2 as our favorite due to expectation of decent results. On 7 Jan, MOIT issued framework for prices of transitional renewable energy projects which are much lower than previous FiT prices.
10
February
VNM – Brief – [HOLD] – Losing market share
VNM lost domestic market share in 2022 due to restructuring GM (General Trade vs 85% revenue) and MT (Modern Trade vs 15% revenue). Domestic sell-in dropped yoy owing to distribution channel duplication, while domestic sell-out has increased 3-5% yoy in 2022. Although management viewed a conservative outlook for consumer spending, they expect VNM to get positive sales growth in 2023F.
10
February
VHC-Earning review [HOLD] – New cycle after phenomenal growth
In 4Q22, Vinh Hoan posted VND2,484bn revenue (-7.8% yoy), which was mainly dragged down by -25.9% yoy and -61.1% yoy decrease of export revenue to US and China. Whilst, Vinh Hoan’s 4Q22 NPAT posted VND199.6bn (-56.7% yoy), plunged by lower gross margin due to the flattening at hefty raw material amid the strong tumble selling price.
10
February
Daily derivatives: Rebound phase is ended
Bearish momentum is strong and the instrument is testing 1,050 pts area. Traders should wait for the reaction of VN30F2302 near 1,050 pts zone to define the next market leg. (Hourly chart)
Featured Articles
15
March
Point Break
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Outlook 2022 – The Big Uptrend
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
Time to bet on economic recovery?
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Fragile hope of recovery path under the worst outbreak
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
INFLATION: A transient or long-lasting shock?
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.