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For new long positions, traders should wait for the short-term correction/consolidation phase on VN30F2302. (Hourly chart)

We tuned in to VIC’s analyst meeting on Jan 31 which featured the strategical visibility on Vinfast and shed some light on its 4Q22 operational updates. We are a bit relieved from their earnings growth prospect. The bottom line erosion was immaterial. Revenue swelled to VND41.2tn (+18% yoy) while PBT earned a VND3.9tn vs a loss of VND6.5tn in 4Q21. Nonetheless, the net gearing height is worry us, keeping us stay skeptical in case the IPO of Vinfast could not the pipeline.

In 4Q22, MWG’s net revenue fell by 4% qoq to VND30tn primarily driven by the off-peak season of laptops and lower-than-expected sale of Iphone new series due to input discontinuation. Revenue in 4Q22 dropped sharply by 15% yoy compared to the high base in 4Q21, thanks to good sales of BHX and ICT chains related to COVID-19 work from home trend.

Economic activities diverge on a long Tet holiday The Tet holiday released divergent influences on Vietnam's economic activities. On one side, a longer Tet than in 2022 scaled trade and production activities down due to fewer working days. On the other side, domestic consumption was more vibrant when consumers had more time and mobility to enjoy the first fully normalized traditional Tet since the pandemic. Taking the significant reduction in the number of working days into account, it seems that the decline in trade turnover became smaller than the previous month, while industrial production re-accelerated, implying the negative impact of the global slowdown on Vietnam’s economy was likely easing.

KBC posted a 4Q22 negative revenue of VND331.2bn and PBT loss of VND532bn due to the reverse of rental revenue arising from tenants who have yet received the investment license. 4Q22 dragged down the 2022 performance with a VND957bn revenue, -77.5% yoy, fulfilling 9.7% of full-year guidance. Since the promise to complete the lease of 50ha land bank in Nam Son Hap Linh continues to be disappointed, we think the company will reschedule to 2023F.

On Jan 30, DBD posted 4Q22 business results with a VND465bn revenue (+15% yoy, +18% qoq) and a VND79bn NPAT (+62% yoy, +46% qoq). In 2022, DBD recorded a revenue of VND1,555bn (stayed the same as 2021) and a PBT of VND299bn (+29% yoy), fulfilling 91%/139% of the full-year guidance.

VNM posted its revenue decreased 4.7% yoy to VND15,069bn in 4Q22P owing to sluggish export markets, the gross margin squeezed continuously by 0.7%p qoq and 3.7%p yoy to 38.8% in 4Q22 owing to the high prices of imported milk powder prices in 2022. Thus, the NPAT-MI was VND1,869bn (-14.9% yoy) and VND8,578bn (-19% yoy) in 4Q22 and 2022, respectively.

NVL released its 4Q22 result with a eanings slump of VND239.1bn,- 70.7% yoy in 4Q22, promting to a full-year NPAT of VND2,255bn, -30.2% yoy. Beside, the negative CFO of VND3,262bn amid the due bond payment of VND18.4tn in next 12 months heightens the fear of default risk. However, the recently sharp dip in NVL price could trigger the bottom fishing strategy from those retail investors. But we do not consider it effective given the earnings erosion and default risk have yet to be priced in.

DCM’s 4Q22 revenue upped 14% yoy to VND4,458bn (+35% qoq) but NPAT downed 8% yoy to VND1,004bn (+37% qoq), above 146%/269% our 4Q22F estimation. In 2022, DCM posted VND15,924bn revenue (+61% yoy) and VND4,280bn NPAT (+134% yoy). The 2022 results fulfilled 110%/117% of our revenue/NPAT forecasts.

In 4Q22, MSN posted VND20,643bn consolidated revenue, -13.4% yoy due to the absences of MML’s feed business contribution, and VND447bn NPAT post-MI, -93.1% yoy since 4Q21 high base recording one-of financial income gains from deconsolidation of feed business. In 2022, MSN reached VND76,189bn revenue (-14% yoy), VND3,567bn NPAT Post-MI (-58.3% yoy), fulfilling 80%/61% of 2022 guidance, while 2022 EBITDA margin reached 18.9% (vs 18.5% in 2021)