Research Center

We witnessed the continuing improvement of construction steel sales volume in Dec. Total Dec steel sales volume posted 593,435 tonnes, decreasing by 12.0% yoy but increasing by 16.4% mom.

We witnessed the continuing improvement in sales volume in Dec. Total Dec steel sales volume posted 117,646 tonnes, dropping by 39.9% yoy but slightly increasing by 3.6% mom.

Long positions on VN30F2301 should be closed after ATC session. For new long positions, traders should wait for the short-term correction on upcoming contract (VN30F2302). (Hourly chart)

In the short term, the downside risk reduces before the Tet holiday thanks to the breakout. However, the profit-taking may appear around the 1,100-pts threshold. Therefore, traders should wait for more bullish signals before opening long positions.

This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During Dec 22, we observed a continuing m-o-m improvement in sales volume.

Vinh Hoan delivered a preliminary VND661bn revenue (-26% mom and -31% yoy) as the pangasius revenue dropped -38% mom and -44% yoy, backed by the lower volume export (-34% mom and -53% yoy) and average selling price (-10.6% mom and -0.4% yoy) in Dec. As such, 4Q22 revenue posted VND2,568bn (-39% yoy and -24% qoq). Overall, 12M22 revenue increased by 51% yoy to VND13,399bn, fulfilling 96% of our 2022F forecast.

Long positions on VN30F2301 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,050 pts level. For new long positions, traders should wait for the short-term correction on upcoming contract (VN30F2302). (Hourly chart)

The downside risk reduces before the Tet holiday thanks to the breakout. However, the profit-taking may appear around the 1,100-pts threshold. Therefore, traders should wait for more bullish signals before opening long positions.

HoSE announced new constituents of the VN30Index and VNFIN LEAD Index last Monday. Accordingly, the VN30Index will add BCM and remove KDH in the 1H23 review. Besides, the VNFIN LEAD Index will not include or remove any tickers. Based on data as of 17 July 2023, we expect local ETFs to buy MWG, GMD, and OCB the most with 13.9 million shares, 9.1 million shares, and 5.3 million shares, respectively. On the sell side, MSB will be sold heavily with 11.3 million shares.

SBV this week calibrates OMO transactions to ensure stable liquidity conditions heading into Tet by offering less T-bill and more repo contracts than last week. However, the central bank persists in keeping the funding costs in the money market at a high level to secure the attractiveness of the dong relative to the U.S. dollar. Besides, USDVND has broken down the SBV’s buying price this week, suggesting that the monetary authority could already buy the greenback from its counterparties under the demand of restoring the FX reserve. Overall, we saw a resilient money market due to the resolution of liquidity hovering and a less hawkish Fed.