05
January
Based on the second recovery, the downside risk is reduced as the index crossed up the 20-period moving average, implying a bullish trend in the short term. However, the selling pressure at a high level is still intact. Therefore, traders should wait for more bullish signals before opening long positions.
04
January
Long VN30F2301 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,020 pts level. (Hourly chart)
04
January
Long VN30F2301 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,020 pts level. (Hourly chart)
04
January
Based on the strong recovery, the downside risk is reduced in the short term as the index crossed up the 20-period moving average. However, the selling pressure at a high level is still intact. Therefore, traders should wait for more bullish signals before opening long positions.
03
January
The money market participants kept staying calm this week when the liquidity condition remained ample. However, the fluctuation in the interbank market increased notably when the central bank issued more T-bills to respond to the interest rate slide. Besides, the 3-day New Year holiday added more pressure to surge the overnight rate in the last trading date of the year. SBV’s OMO implementation this week likely indicates that Vietnam’s monetary authority tends to lift the interbank rate to stabilize the exchange rate as its top priority. Hence, we expect SBV to sustain the spread between the effective fed fund rate and VNIBOR at a premium, raising funding costs in the money market next week.
03
January
Market ended up to be net bought. Financials, Consumer Staples, and Materials attracted most of buying activity. With ETF flow, net inflow was USD56mn. The positive flow of money was mainly driven by the strong demand on VanEck and Fubon.
03
January
Last week, trading volume continually dropped across the covered warrant market. Besides, trading value also depreciated, recording at VND41bn, down 7% WoW. By underlying asset, covered warrants which have STB as the underlying asset kept attracting the most of trading interest from both foreign and domestic investors, mainly driving by CSTB2215 (-16.9%).
03
January
There is the strong supply near 1,100 pts zone as well as 1,050 pts zone is downward pierced. Therefore, investors should reduce the positions on leading stocks and wait for more accurate signal for the upcoming market leg.
03
January
Short VN30F2301 near 1,000 pts zone and stop the loss when there is the closing price above 1,030 pts level. (Hourly chart)
03
January
The downside risk is intact in the short term because of low liquidity. That means a downtrend in the short term. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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