30
December
Although the VNIndex still closes above the 1,000-pts threshold, the downside risk is intact because of low liquidity. That means a downtrend in the short term. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions.
30
December
Short VN30F2301 near 1,000 pts zone and stop the loss when there is the closing price above 1,030 pts level. (Hourly chart)
29
December
Vietnam’s economy decelerated significantly in 4Q22 under growing global uncertainties and the fading low-base effect. Economic growth just reaches 5.92% YoY this quarter when trade activities step into the red territory, and the resultant export-oriented manufacturing keeps decelerating. It is foreseeable that domestic production would slow down further when the global tendency of tightening monetary policy needs more time to pivot. External demand and subsequent new orders to contract manufacturers, including Vietnam, would remain gloomy. On the upside, domestic consumption remains favorable due to the upcoming shopping season, and inflation remains under control, allowing the government to pursue policies for economic growth.
29
December
Short VN30F2301 near 1,000 pts zone and stop the loss when there is the closing price above 1,030 pts level. (Hourly chart)
29
December
Despite the second recovery, the downside risk is intact because of low liquidity. That means a downtrend in the short term. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions.
28
December
Short VN30F2301 near 1,000 pts zone and stop the loss when there is the closing price above 1,030 pts level. (Hourly chart)
28
December
Despite the strong recovery, the downside risk is intact as the VNIndex closes below the 50-period moving average. implying a downtrend in the short term. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions.
27
December
The money market keeps stable this week as the overnight interbank rate dropped below 4.00% at the weekend. In response to this drop, the central bank issued T-bill contracts as a lower bound of the interest rate corridor to raise the short-term funding cost in the banking system. In the forex market, the dong appreciated further with a slight increase when catalysts for the DXY uptrend were increasingly limited.
27
December
Short VN30F2301 near 1,000 pts zone and stop the loss when there is the closing price above 1,030 pts level. (Hourly chart)
27
December
The VNIndex closes below the 1,000-pts threshold, implying a downtrend in the short term. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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