Tiếng Việt
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22
December
Steel-Brief-Neutral-Slight improvement in Nov
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During Nov 22, we observed a slight improvement in sales volume on m-o-m basis.
Research Center
22
December
NKG-Brief-HOLD- Nov 22 Sales volume increased
We witnessed an improvement in sales volume in Nov. Total Nov steel sales volume posted 66,089 tonnes, falling by 34.9% yoy but increasing 31.3% mom.
22
December
HSG-Brief-HOLD-Nov 22- Sales volume slightly increased
We witnessed the slight improvement in sales volume in Nov. Total Nov steel sales volume posted 113,543 tonnes, dropping by 40.4% yoy but slightly increasing by 4.4% mom.
22
December
Daily derivatives: Demand remains at high level near 1,000 pts zone
Although there is demand near 1,000 pts zone, the trading signal is still unclear. In this case, traders could stay on the sidelines and wait for more accurate signal to avoid the price noise. (Hourly chart)
22
December
Market commentary: Retest 1,000-pts threshold
Because of the fourth losing session, the short-term downside risk is still intact. Therefore, the uptrend may reverse in the next sessions. Traders should be careful and sell long positions if the VNIndex closes below the 1,000-pts threshold.
21
December
Daily derivatives: Demand ticks up near 1,000 pts zone
Although there is demand near 1,000 pts zone, the trading signal is still unclear. In this case, traders could stay on the sidelines and wait for more accurate signal to avoid the price noise. (Hourly chart)
21
December
Market commentary: Resume downtrend
Based on third losing sesion, the short-term downside risk is still intact. Therefore, the uptrend may reverse in the next sessions. Traders should be careful and sell long positions if the VNIndex closes below the 1,000-pts threshold.
20
December
Easing liquidity demand under the persistent SBV’s OMO implementation
Vietnam’s money market remained stable after Fed released its rate decision with an anticipated increase of 50bps. Interbank rates reduced notably with an unchanged volume compared to the last week, indicating that borrowers gained more bargaining power when the central bank persistently managed OMO transactions at 6.00%. The dong witnessed another appreciation this week, although Fed delivered a 50bps increase in its monetary policy rate, implying that the supply side was expanding.
20
December
Daily derivatives: Market direction is still unclear
In this case, traders could stay on the sidelines and wait for more accurate signal to avoid the price noise. (Hourly chart)
20
December
Market commentary: Pressure of profit-taking
The short-term downside risk is still intact due to high profit-taking. Therefore, the uptrend may reverse in the next sessions. Traders should be careful and sell long positions if the VNIndex closes below the 1,000-pts threshold.
Featured Articles
15
March
Point Break
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Outlook 2022 – The Big Uptrend
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
Time to bet on economic recovery?
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Fragile hope of recovery path under the worst outbreak
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
INFLATION: A transient or long-lasting shock?
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.