Research Center

The FTSE Vietnam Index will not remove and add any ticker in the 4Q22. Besides, the MVIS Vietnam Index will remove BCG, DXG, ITA, and THD in this quarterly review. Based on data as of 12 Dec 2022, we expect that foreign ETFs will sell VRE and STB the most with 12 million shares and 11 million shares. On the buy-side, VND, NVL, and SSI will be bought heavily with 12 million shares, 10 million shares, and 5 million shares. The new weights will be effective on 19 Dec 2022.

Market ended up to be net bought. Real Estate, Financials, and Materials whilst Utilities was divested the most. With ETF flow, net inflow was USD56mn. The positive flow of money was mainly driven by the strong demand on VFMVN Diamond, VanEck, and Fubon.

Last week, trading volume increased slightly compared to the previous week as the stock market trading activities still remained exalted. Besides, trading value maintained high, recording at VND58bn, a 3-month high. By underlying asset, covered warrants which have STB as the underlying asset kept attracting the most of trading interest from both foreign and domestic investors, mainly driving by CSTB2222 (6.4%).

According to the Customs, in Nov, total fertilizer export volume was more than 92,000 tonnes (-43% mom, -34% yoy), equivalent to USD54mn (-38% mom, -32% yoy). This disappointing result was predictable as the Winter-Spring crop was happening in Vietnam. Fertilizer producers had to prioritize the domestic market first.

In the short term, the VNIndex still closes above the 1,000-pts threshold, showing a bullish market. However, the downside risk is still intact around 1,100 pts. Therefore, traders should wait for the next signals before investment decisions.

Long position on VN30F2212 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,000 pts level. For new long positions, traders should wait for the short-term consolidation phase in order to capture the better entry. (Hourly chart)

There is the strong demand and the market has formed the short-term bottom as well as rebound phase has high probability to be strengthened. Therefore, investors could open the position on leading stocks when there is the minor pullback (retest 1,050 pts zone).

The prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment dropped 5.2% yoy but grew 7.0% mom to USD2.9bn in November. In November, the export to the US (the largest textile and garment export market of Vietnam) fell 18.5% yoy, but lifted 18.3% mom, accounting for 41.7% of Vietnam's total textile and garment export value. Overall, in 11M22, Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover lifted 18.7% yoy to nearly USD34.6bn.

In the short term, the Vietnam stock market may maintain its uptrend, however, selling pressure may appear as soon as due to Fed policy and liquidity of the corporate bond market. We expect the stock market will fall and form a new long-term bottom in mid-2023. And the market entry the new bullish market.

Long position on VN30F2212 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,000 pts level. For new long positions, traders should wait for the short-term consolidation phase in order to capture the better entry. (Hourly chart)