15
December
Long position on VN30F2212 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,000 pts level. For new long positions, traders should wait for the entry point for the upcoming contract (VN30F2301). (Hourly chart)
15
December
Despite the second gaining session, the downside risk is still intact in the short term due to selling pressure at a high level. Therefore, traders should be careful and sell long positions if the VNIndex closes below the 1,000-pts threshold.
14
December
On Dec 12, we tuned in to DBD’s AM presentation briefing for the upcoming business expansion plan. The company expects 2022F’s revenue/NPAT could be above VND1,450bn (-7% yoy) and VND250bn (+32% yoy) which are mixed with AGM targets of a VND1,700 revenue and a VND171bn NPAT. DBD expects the EU-GMP factory could be approved in 2025F, which will help the company to achieve a VND3,000bn revenue in 2025F.
14
December
Long position on VN30F2212 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,000 pts level. For new long positions, traders should wait for the short-term consolidation phase in order to capture the better entry. (Hourly chart)
14
December
Despite the recovery, the downside risk is still intact in the short term due to selling pressure at a high level. Therefore, traders should be careful and sell long positions if the VNIndex closes below the 1,000-pts threshold.
13
December
The money market this week remained calm heading to the Fed’s rate decision in December-mid. The interbank market continued to experience stable development with significantly high volume and rate when SBV persistently managed OMO transactions at the rate of 6.00%. USDVND dropped further despite the upcoming 50bps or more increase in the U.S. policy rate, implying that what caused the scarcity in USD source has likely reversed.
13
December
Revenue VND893bn (-11.9% mom and -10.3% yoy). In which, the pangasius revenue dropped 20.1% mom and -22.2% yoy backed by the decrease of the average selling price (-21.5% mom and +1.8% yoy) and volume export (+8.3% mom and -23.2% yoy). Of note, only China export increased by 12.5% mom while export market fell 10% to 12% mom. 11M22 revenue increased by 59.6% yoy to VND12,738bn, fulfilling 94% of our 2022F forecast.
13
December
On Dec 12, we attended NLG’s analyst meeting day, and the presentation was largely centered on the financial position, 2022F guidance, and contract sale. NLG revises down its VND23.3tn contract sales to VND12.3tn in 2022F, 2.08x higher than 2021. The company blames the slower-than-expected legal frameworks and unanticipated soon dry-up of mortgage loans for their missing of guidance especially the Can Tho project, Izumi project
13
December
Long position on VN30F2212 should be held and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,000 pts level. For new long positions, traders should wait for the short-term consolidation phase in order to capture the better entry. (Hourly chart)
13
December
Downside risk increases in the short term because of the high selling pressure. Therefore, traders should be careful and sell long positions if the VNIndex closes below the 1,000-pts threshold.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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