07
February
In the short term, the VNIndex increases to retest the 1,100-pts threshold. However, the downside risk is intact due to high selling pressure at a high level. Therefore, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals.
07
February
Last week, trading volume ticked up across the covered warrant market. Besides, trading value also increased, recording at VND58bn, hitting the monthly high. By underlying asset, covered warrants which have HPG as the underlying asset kept attracting the most of trading interest from domestic investors whilst foreign interest focused on STB Cws.
07
February
For new long positions, traders should wait for the short-term correction/consolidation phase on VN30F2302. (Hourly chart)
06
February
On Feb 6, we tuned in to IDC’s AM presentation briefing for the 4Q22 business result. Some key takeaway notes were largely centered on 2023F guidance on industrial park operation. IDC is trading at 5.7x TTM PE, significantly lower than 25x three-year average. We think the investors have yet gained confidence in the company’s sustainable earnings growth likelihood in 2023F though the company reassures the attendees by confirming its feasibility in achieving a higher yoy growth of both topline and bottom line.
06
February
The market ended up to be net bought with net buy value recorded at USD78mn (-28.9% wow). Particularly, market demand concentrated the most on Materials due to large buy orders on HPG. With ETF flow, the flow of money across Vietnam plummeted compared to the previous trading week with net inflow was USD26mn (-63% wow), driven by the strong demand on Diamond, VFMVN30 ETF, and X FTSE Vietnam.
06
February
Based on our estimate, the fertilizer industry announced a VND26,023bn revenue (-9% yoy, -2% qoq) and a VND3,883bn NPAT (-21% yoy, -8% qoq) in 4Q22. 4Q22 blended gross margin (GM) lowered by 3.4%p yoy to 25.7% in 4Q22 (+0.8%p qoq), while the net margin (NM) shrank to 15% (-1.5%p yoy, -0.7%p qoq), regardless the SG&A to sales narrowed by 1.1%p yoy to 9.3% (+1.9% qoq).
06
February
This quarterly earnings report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the earning growth trend in the steel market. We witnessed a collapse in aggregated gross margin (into negative territory in 4Q22), which mainly caused by the GM collapse of HPG. In 1Q23F, we expect to see the gross margin will improve in 1Q23F when the pressure from high-cost inventories have been away.
06
February
For new long positions, traders should wait for the short-term correction/consolidation phase on VN30F2302. (Hourly chart)
06
February
In the short term, the downside risk is still intact as the VNIndex closes the 1,100-pts threshold. That implies a downtrend. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for the next signals.
06
February
There is the strong supply near 1,120 pts zone as well as 1,050 pts zone is still held. The rebound phase could be extent only when 1,120 pts zone is broken. Therefore, investors should hold the positions on leading stocks and wait for more accurate signal for the upcoming market leg.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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