Research Center

The Philadelphia Manufacturing index (Philly Fed report) gives a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since manufacturing is a major sector of the economy, the Philly Fed report has a big influence on market behavior. Some of the Philly Fed sub-indexes also provide insight on commodity prices and other clues on inflation. That is the reason why Fed is watching this indicator to find the best monetary policy.

Long VN30F2209 if there is the breakout at 1,300 pts zone, stop the loss if there is the closing price below 1,280 pts level. Short VN30F2209 if there is the breakdown at 1,250 pts zone, stop the loss if there is the closing price above 1,280 pts level. (Hourly chart)

In the short term, the VNIndex still closes below the 1,250-pts threshold due to due to selling pressure at the threshold. That means the index shows bearish signals. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for the next signals.

Last week, trading activity came back to normal level. With foreign trading activity, foreign trading activity ticked up. However, selling pressure overwhelmed market demand. Net sell value was VND4.7bn, a 5-month high. By underlying asset, covered warrants which have STB, FPT, and HPG as the underlying asset kept absorbing the highest trading value from both domestic and foreigners. Notably, foreign investors placed large sell order on STB’s CW, driving by the strong divestment on CSTB2211 (-22.0%) and CSTB2215 (-14.6%).

Based on data as of 12 Sep 2022, we expect that foreign ETFs will sell HPG and STB the most with 16 million shares and 13 million shares. On the buy-side, VND, VNM, and NVL will be bought heavily with 8.2 million shares, 4.9 million shares, and 4.4 million shares.

Money market transactions return after a long holiday with a turbulence in the interbank market when the liquidity condition seems to be thinner. Traded value declines significantly while interest rates soar, indicating that liquidity providers seems more cautions under the solid SBV’s stance in reducing USD-VND interest rate spread and recent development of the DXY.

Long VN30F2209 if there is the breakout at 1,300 pts zone, stop the loss if there is the closing price below 1,280 pts level. (Hourly chart)

In the short term, the VNIndex still closes below the 1,250-pts threshold. That means the index shows bearish signals. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for the next signals.

Market ended up to be net sold. Supply mainly spread to Financials, Real Estate, and Industrials whilst demand was mainly absorbed by Energy and Consumer Staples. With ETF flow, Vietnam was divested. However, the divestment was not significant and the outflow was mainly driven by the selling pressure on VFMVN30 and VFMVN Diamond.

In August 2022, Vietnam’s prelim seafood export recorded USD917mn, up 56.0% yoy mainly assisted by the low base in 2021. Pangasius export increased 85.9% yoy while shrimp export decreased 4.7% yoy in August since shrimp export strongly reduced 33% yoy and 18% yoy in US and China markets, respectively.