08
September
The VNIndex shows the breakdown because the index closes below the 1,250-pts threshold with high volume. That means a bearish signal, implying a short-term downtrend. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for next signals.
08
September
The FTSE Vietnam Index will remove KDH and SBT and not add any ticker in the 3Q22. Based on data as of 07 Sep 2022, we expect that FTSE Vietnam ETF will sell HPG, VRE, and STB the most with 7.3 million shares, 6.2 million shares and 4.1 million shares. On the buy-side, VND, VNM, and NVL will be bought heavily with 6.6 million shares, 3.9 million shares, and 3.7 million shares. The new weights will be effective on 16 Sep 2022.
07
September
VN30F2209 keeps respecting the range bound. If the range is held, trading point would be invalid. In this case, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for accurate trading point which would occur after the consolidation phase.
07
September
The uptrend is still intact in the short term as the VNIndex closes above the significant moving averages. Therefore, traders may hold long positions focusing on the leading sectors.
06
September
The liquidity condition in the money market remains tight this week under a long holiday ahead and the firm stance of SBV in raising short-term interest rates. Winning yields of OMO instruments are still high, and the interbank rate uptrend is strengthening. In our opinion, interest rates in the money market could sustain high in the coming weeks as the monetary authority seems to prioritize the goals of stabilizing the local currency value against the surging U.S. dollar.
06
September
Last week, trading activity dropped across the covered warrant market due to the holiday. Similar to domestic trading activity, foreign trading activity also dropped. However, selling pressure and market demand has started to enter the balance phase. By underlying asset, covered warrants which have STB and HPG as the underlying asset kept absorbing the highest trading value from both domestic and foreigners.
06
September
Market ended up to be net sold. Supply mainly spread to Industrials, Real Estate, and Materials whilst demand was mainly absorbed by Energy and Financials. With ETF flow, Vietnam was divested. However, the divestment was not significant and the outflow was mainly driven by the selling pressure on VanEck and VFMVN Diamond.
06
September
VN30F2209 keeps respecting the range bound. If the range is held, trading point would be invalid. In this case, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for accurate trading point which would occur after the consolidation phase.
06
September
Despite the contraction, the uptrend is still intact in the short term. Therefore, traders may hold long positions focusing on the leading sectors.
05
September
PVD posted 1H22 results with VND2.7tn revenue (+60.9% yoy), and VND116bn loss (vs a loss of VND98bn in 1H21) since old drilling contracts were already signed in 2021 with low Jack-up (JU) day rates. The South East Asia drilling market started to warm and jack-up day rate improved significantly in late 2Q22 due to high oil prices. PVD expects the better JU day rate to improve its earnings from 3Q22F onward.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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