Tiếng Việt
普通话
16
September
Market commentary: Real Estate in the spotlight
Desipte the recovery, the VNIndex closes below the the 1,250-pts threshold, implying a short-term downtrend. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for the next signals.
Research Center
16
September
Daily derivatives: Bearish momentum is active
Short VN30F2210 when there is the breakdown at 1,250 pts level and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,280 pts level. (Hourly chart)
15
September
NKG – Brief – HOLD – August 2022 – Continuing weak coated-steel demand
The August performance witnessed continuously the decline in export volume caused by weak global demand, however, the domestic sales volume has improved thanks to the low base in 2021.
15
September
VHC – Brief [BUY] – August revenue updates
Vinh Hoan posted total revenue of VND1,270bn (+73% yoy) in August, mainly driven by the increase in export to US (+72% yoy), EU (+5% yoy), and China (+20% yoy). Specifically, revenue increased strongly by 179% in domestic market. VHC total revenue slightly increased 6% mom, assisted by +17% mom and +75% mom revenue of US export and domestic. Of note, exporting to EU and China market decreased by 40.5% mom and 12.9% mom, respectively.
15
September
HPG – Brief – HOLD – August 2022 – Impressive domestic sales volume
The August performance witnessed impressive domestic sales volume, especially, construction steel with the growth of 70.6% yoy, 29.5% mom to 386,990 tonnes. The total August domestic sales volume increased by 23.5% yoy, 34.5% mom to 601,649 tonnes.
15
September
It’s still shining
Vietnam’s economy would likely shine in 3Q22 with impressive GDP growth and well-controlled inflation under the ongoing recovery. In our opinion, trade activities would slow down in the third quarter while favorable domestic consumption would be the primary pillar for economic growth. Therefore, we predict real GDP to grow by 12.16% in 3Q22.
15
September
Power – Brief – Nonrated – Thermal power shines in early 2023F?
Hydropower output surged to 10.7 kWh in Aug (+30% yoy) thanks to favorable weather conditions. In 1H22, the mixed coal price supplied to domestic power plants had increased 30-35% yoy. We predict the coal price will keep its rising trend. As La Nina is expected to wane since early 2023, coupled with shrinking gas input price, we believe EVN will mobilize thermal power, especially gas-fired power in 2023F.
15
September
Steel – Brief – [Neutral] – August Domestic sales was resilient
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During August 22, we observed an improvement in domestic sales volume while export sales volume was still weak.
15
September
Daily derivatives: Expiration date
VN30F2209 would be expired on this trading date. Thus, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for the trading point on upcoming contract.
15
September
Market commentary: Bottom fishing
The VNIndex decreases after retesting the 1,250-pts threshold, implying a short-term downtrend. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for the next signals.
Featured Articles
15
March
Point Break
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Outlook 2022 – The Big Uptrend
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
Time to bet on economic recovery?
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Fragile hope of recovery path under the worst outbreak
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
INFLATION: A transient or long-lasting shock?
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.