27
September
SBV on Thursday decided to raise several policy rates for the first time since 2012 following the Fed’s decision of a 100bps rate hike. Besides, the central bank has significantly increased the T-bill offering with higher winning yields to ensure the new interest rate corridor would be effective. This decision implies that money market interest rates would be persistently high this year to counter the capital outflow due to a stronger DXY.
27
September
The VNIndex closes below the 1,200-pts threshold, implying a bearish market. In the short term, the downtrend is still intact with high risk. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for the next signals.
27
September
Foreign selling pressure cooled last week. Supply mainly spread to Industrials, Financials and Real Estate whilst demand was turned to Materials. With ETF flow, Vietnam has witnessed a strong divestment after its rebound in the previous week. Net outflow was surged to USD13mn, driven mainly by the outflow of VFMVN Diamond, Vaneck Vietnam and VFMVN30. It could be concluded that the flow of money on ETFs has signal to divest from Vietnam’s market even though it still remaining positive in accumulation 6M.
27
September
The captured short positions on VN30F2210 should be held and stop the loss only when there is the closing price above 1,250 pts level. (Hourly chart)
26
September
GAS released robust 9M22 preliminary business results of 5,700mn m3 dry gas volume (+2.6% yoy), VND76.5tn revenue (+29% yoy), and VND14tn PBT (+62% yoy), fulfilling 64%/95%/160% of the conservative guidance built on the scenario of Brent oil at USD60. These results mean that dry gas volume, revenue, and PBT in 3Q22 are 1,700mn m3 (+10% yoy), VND21.7tn (+16% yoy), and VND3.2tn (+4% yoy), respectively.
26
September
The captured short positions on VN30F2210 should be held and stop the loss only when there is the closing price above 1,250 pts level. (Hourly chart)
26
September
In the short term, the downtrend of the VNIndex is still intact because the VNIndex closes below the significant moving average. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for the next signals.
25
September
The benchmark for the rebound phase (1,250 pts area) is broken which means the rebound phase is faded. Besides, there is high probability for the VNIndex to retest 1,150 pts zone. Therefore, investors should stay on the sidelines and take action only when the solid bottom is formed.
23
September
Short VN30F2210 when there is the breakdown at 1,250 pts level and stop the loss when there is the closing price below 1,280 pts level. (Hourly chart)
23
September
Despite the high demand at the 1,200-pts threshold, the downtrend of the VNIndex is still intact in the short term because of the gaining session with low liquidity. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for the next signals.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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