Research Center

The downtrend is confirmed again as the VNIndex strongly decreases. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for the next signals.

Despite a strong recovery, the market sentiment is still cautious in the short term as the VNIndex closes below the 1,150-pts threshold. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for the next signals.

The captured short positions on VN30F2210 should be held and stop the loss only when there is the closing price above 1,250 pts level. (Hourly chart)

The captured short positions on VN30F2210 should be held and stop the loss only when there is the closing price above 1,250 pts level. (Hourly chart)

The market sentiment has become cautious in the short term as the VNIndex closes below the 1,100-pts threshold. That implies a downtrend. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for the next signals.

Last week, trading value kept decreasing across the covered warrant market, mainly impacting by the stock market correction. With foreign trading activity, selling pressure was covered by demand, net sell value ticked up, recording at VND0.8bn. By underlying asset, covered warrants which have STB as the underlying asset kept absorbing the highest trading value from both domestic and foreigners.

Interest rates in the money market were steadily high as SBV continued to calibrate the OMO tool to reshape the new interest rate corridor at a higher base. Furthermore, banks tend to require additional liquidity assets to meet the regulatory set of ratios and put more upward pressure on the liquidity condition in the banking system. We predict that SBV would keep the exchange rate stabilization as its priority, causing short-term funding costs to be persistently high in the coming weeks.

In Sep, total fertilizer export volume was 190,000 tonnes (+61% mom and +116% yoy), equivalent to USD108mn (+52% mom and +184% yoy). On average, the export price was about USD568/tonne (-6% mom but +32% yoy), equivalent to VND13.6mn/tonne. We estimate the gas input price in Sep was USD235/tonne, which fell by 13% vs Aug level.

Market ended up to be net sold. Supply mainly spread to Real Estate, Financials, and Consumer Staples whilst demand was mainly absorbed by Energy. With ETF flow, inflow has come back to Vietnam. Net inflow was USD10mn, a 3-month high. Similar to the previous week, the positive flow of money was mainly led by the strong demand on VanEck Vietnam and VFMVN30.

The captured short positions on VN30F2210 should be held and stop the loss only when there is the closing price above 1,250 pts level. (Hourly chart)