13
October
Despite the recovery, the downtrend is dominant in the short term due to low liquidity. That means the gaining session may be a bull trap. Therefore, traders should stay on the sideline and wait for the next signals.
12
October
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During Sept 22, we observed an improvement in domestic demand while export sales volume was still sluggish.
12
October
The market sentiment has become pessimistic in the short term, implying a downtrend. Therefore, traders should reduce long positions and wait for the next signals.
12
October
The captured short positions on VN30F2210 should be held and stop the loss only when there is the closing price above 1,250 pts level. (Hourly chart)
11
October
Money market this week faces turbulence due to the liquidity risk aversion related a troubled bank. Overnight interbank rate surged on the beginning of this week but retreated later as the central offered repo contracts with a significant amount at a much cheaper cost. We predict that the central bank could switch its priority to the stability of the banking system in the short-term with further money injection before returning to a longer-term objective of forex market stabilization.
11
October
We witnessed the slump in performance of FY2022 on year-on-year basis caused by weak sales volume in first 9 months of 2022, which showed a significant drop in demand from both domestic and export channels.
11
October
September revenue increased 35% compared to low base in Sep 2021 while declining 28% mom since the export value to all markets reduced (-37% mom to US, -10% to EU, and -52% to China). Prelim 3Q22 revenue posted VND3,383bn (+51% yoy and -19% qoq), which is the second highest record.
11
October
Trading value continued to move in undemanding direction when average daily trading value (ADTV) in 3Q22 decreased to VND14,836bn (-27.7% QoQ, -44% YoY). In addition, new accounts in this quarter dropped significantly after historical high in 2Q22. In 3Q22, there were 451,284 new accounts (-61.6% QoQ, +33.8% YoY). In brokerage market share, VPS gained 1.61pts in 3Q22 and reached 18.71% HSX’s brokerage share, the highest market share within company history. There were 7 companies in Top 10 experiencing market share losses.
11
October
The September performance witnessed continuously the decline in export volume caused by weak global demand, however, the domestic sales volume has improved significantly thanks to the low base in 2021.
11
October
The Sept performance witnessed the good domestic sales volume, +37.0% yoy. In which, steel pipes increased by 105.9% yoy while coated steel increased by 118.7% yoy thanks to low base in 2021.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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