03
August
In Jul 2022, Vietnam’s prelim seafood export recorded USD1,047mn, up 14% yoy but down 7% mom. Shrimp and pangasius export increased 3% yoy and 68% yoy in Jul. Yet, shrimp export fell 15% mom and pangasius export declined 10% mom since the demand import in the key market as US and China drop significantly.
29
July
In Jul, the export of agricultural products was sluggish when most of the items decreased in both value and volume. Total agricultural plant export was USD1,671mn (-10% mom and +5% yoy). Surprisingly, rubber export value topped in total export turnover with 21% share, followed by rice (20%), coffee (17%), cashew (16%), vegetables (16%), and cassava (5%).
27
July
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During June 22, we observed the weak demand in both domestic and export markets. We expect the trend to continue in next 3 months.
25
July
Total insurance premium accumulated in 5M22 was pegged VND94,681bn (+14.4% yoy). In which, life insurance premium increased by 14.8% to VND66,714bn; non-life insurance premium also surged by 13.3% to VND27,967bn. Top 5 players in non-life insurance reached double-digit growth rates in first five months, except Bao Viet. MIC insurance premium increased 33.4% yoy, the most impressive in top five, and took the fourth place from Bao Minh.
15
July
Congress passed the new Insurance law 2022 on June 16th 2022. The draft of this new law was first introduced around February 2021 (refer here). After receiving feedback from experts at many meetings, the Law was approved with the rate of 94.18%. The effective date will be January 1st, 2023. In general, the new law retains the same ideas and spirit as the proposed draft, adding some clarifications and changes which are positive for sustainable development and long-term industry outlook.
11
July
Total electricity production in Jun was 24.52bn kWh (+5.1% mom, +2.6% yoy) and the 6M22 aggregate output volume went up to 133.1bn kWh (+3.6% yoy). The unexpectedly high level of rainfall in May and Jun, especially in the North amid the extremely hot season made the hydropower output surge to 11bn kWh in Jun (+33% mom, +71.3% yoy), which made the average free market price (FMP) in May dropped to VND1,136/kWh. It is predicted that there will be 10-12 typhoons and tropical depressions till the end of the year, thus the heavy rainfall is expected to occur in the 2H22F.
08
July
The prelim export turnover of Vietnam’s textile and garment remained optimistic with 16.5% yoy and 13.1% mom, to USD3.6bn in June. The US persisted as the largest textile and garment importer with a USD1.8bn, +13.1% yoy/+11.2% mom, accounting for 50.2% of Vietnam's total textile and garment export value. Overall, in 1H22, Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover soared 21.4% yoy to USD18.6bn.
08
July
2Q22 trading value was down significantly. Combined 2Q22 ADTV on 3 bourses was VND20.5tn (-34.2% QoQ, -21.8% YoY). Contrast to unfavorable market movements in the second quarter, securities companies did a great job to gain an enormous number of accounts. In 2Q22 separately, there were 1.174mn new accounts (+73.6% QoQ, new high record established). The competition of securities companies in brokerage spotted interesting developments. VPS ended a 13-quarter streak with positive quarterly growth rates and HSC was back to Top 4 brokerage market share.
04
July
In Jun, rubber export gained the spotlight thanks to an amazing increase in both export volume and value. However, contrary to the expectation about boosting export output in the context of global food shortage fears, rice exports recorded a little bit shy result.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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