![Steel-Brief-[NEUTRAL]-Domestic sale saw an uptick](https://kisvn.vn/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2019/09/page-phantich-m.jpg)
17
October
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During September 23, we observed the total sale volume also fell slightly increased by 4.7% mom, 9.8% yoy to 2mn tonnes. Total production was at 2.2mn tonnes (+4 mom, -2.7 yoy)
03
October
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During August 23, we observed the total consumption volume also fell slightly by 5.3% mom, 0.9% yoy to 1.9mn tonnes.
02
October
Long-term, fast growth in demand for electricity opens up a lot of opportunities for industries in the power system. Regarding the power generation activity, especially, we highly evaluate the growth potential of the two sources of gas turbiness and wind power in the mid- and long-term based on analyzing the two fundamental characteristics of the power system in terms of (1) stability and (2) economic efficiency. we rate BUY on NT2 (TP: VND29,400, upside: +20%), QTP (VND23,400, upside: +54%), and HOLD on GEG (VND13,000). In addition, we positively value POW's growth potential after 2024, when NT3 and NT4 plants begin commercial operation.
05
September
Despite a flattish 2Q23 revenue growth of -3.4%yoy (VND39.9tn), earnings growth rattled by 41.5% yoy due to the interest burden coupled with an unfavorable comparison base. Gross profit reduced to VND4.9tn (-15.5%yoy). Costly material thinned industry gross margins, particularly for residential contractors. In contrast, infrastructure builders with BOT projects sustained healthier gross margins. Contractors were weighted by surging interest expense including C4G (+95 % yoy interest expense growth in 2Q23), PC1 (+59% yoy), TCD (+67% yoy).
29
August
According to the GSO estimate, in Aug, the total agriculture export value slightly increased to USD2bn (-4% mom, +24% yoy). Rice export value surged by 79% mom and 89% yoy to USD583mn. Rice export volume sharply increased by 67% mom and 54% yoy to 1mn tonnes. Vegetable export value was USD410mn (-25% mom, +69% yoy), and it accounted for 21% of total agriculture export turnover (+5.5%p yoy).
24
August
To fulfill the urge of the Prime Minister in minister meetings, the SBV rewards the attendees with the amendment cited in Circular 10/2023 on late 23 Aug. By suspending three sub-articles 8,9,10, the SBV removes the metaphorical meaning and exposes the lenders to more discretion in setting the disbursement terms and conditions. We expect Circular 10 could facilitate the loan growth to real estate sectors and benefit the developers and homebuyers.
16
August
The Government approved a range of social programs and public investment to revitalize economic growth in 2022. In light of the strong demand for construction materials in 2024F, we recommend BUY on crushed stone stocks, namely DHA, and VLB. We rate BUY on HHV, CTD as direct and indirect beneficiaries from public spending theme.
07
August
Based on our data collected from 26 listed companies in the agriculture sector, revenue rose by 19% yoy to VND27.2tn, mainly contributed by the surging revenue of crop producers by 20% yoy, and 18% yoy in feeding companies. We anticipate the rice export turnover will keep rising on quarterly and yearly basis in 3Q23, base on following catalysts (1) Russia’s exit from Blacksea Grain Initiation (2) El Nino threatens to drag the yield down and (3) India banned non-bastima rice, addition to the ban of 25% broken rice export and 30% tax imposed for non-bastima rice since Sep-2022.
07
August
In 2Q23, the growth rate of the firms in the VNINDEX was almost zero, bringing the trailing PE to 14.5x. In the short term, we don’t think the PE level to be attractive for trading activities when (1) the figure has reached the average PE of VNINDEX in the period of 2018-23 and (2) it also points out the current return of VNIndex investment is not more attractive than the deposit savings (the current spread by VNIndex’s E/P and deposit rate is only 0.6%.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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