Tiếng Việt
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18
October
Daily derivatives: Re-enter short positions
Short VN30F2310 after ATO session and stop the loss when there is the closing price above 1,160 pts level.
Research Center
18
October
Market commentary: Massive divest in the ATC session
The big sell orders in the ATC sessions causes the stock market to experience a 2nd consecutive deep loss session. Selling pressure suddenly intensifies again with the VNIndex maintaining to close below the 50-period moving average, indicating the downside risk is intact. However, the important support level of the 1,100-pts threshold is still not breakout. Therefore, investors should stand aside and carefully observe the next movements. The next time, if VNIndex breaks the above support level with high liquidity, investors should start to reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold.
17
October
ETF Review: Local ETFs buy HDB the most
The HoSE announced the new constituents of the VN DIAMOND Index last Monday. As per the announcement, the index will remove DHC while adding HDB in the 4Q23 review. Furthermore, the VN30Index and the VNFIN LEAD Index will rebalance its weight based on the new free-float rate, share outstanding, and price… The new weight will be effective on 06 Nov 2023.
17
October
Steel-Brief-[NEUTRAL]-Domestic sale saw an uptick
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. During September 23, we observed the total sale volume also fell slightly increased by 4.7% mom, 9.8% yoy to 2mn tonnes. Total production was at 2.2mn tonnes (+4 mom, -2.7 yoy)
17
October
Daily derivatives: Strong selling pressure
Although the reversal for the downtrend is still not confirmed, new long positions for swing trading are not recommended due to the upcoming volatile period. The bullish move would come back only when 1,160 pts zone is broken.
17
October
Market commentary: Faces the strong resistance zone
The stock market encounters difficulties when the VNIndex approaches the strong resistance zone of 1,150-1,160 points, indicating selling pressure is still present and quite significant. The downside risk is intact due to this index maintaining to end below the 50-period moving average. Therefore, investors should stand aside and wait for the next signal. The next time, if the VNIndex surpasses the above resistance zone, investors can open again exploratory long positions and focus on leading stocks.
17
October
Covered warrant 09-13 Oct: The CWs market is still less vibrancy
Due to the active correction phase, the CW market is likely to keep slowing down in the upcoming week.
17
October
Fundflow 09-13 Oct: Vietnam is divested again
In general, demand declined significantly, while selling pressure intensified strongly again in domestic ETFs. In this case, outflow across Vietnam may persist in the next time. However, it is likely that this situation will not be prolonged, in the context of the stock market's ongoing recovery trend.
16
October
SBV persistently offers bills on USDVND escalation
The money market experienced one more worrying week with USDVND increasing for the second consecutive week amid persistently negative USD-VND rate differentials and a strong DXY. SBV continued issuing bills to provide a channel for excessive liquidity when interbank rates dropped sharply. For the next week, SBV's VND20.00tn bills, issued one month ago, will start to mature. The actions taken by the central bank may reveal its short-term tendency to combat the exchange rate swing. If SBV decides to issue a more significant amount of new bills, it could indicate the commitment to stabilize USDVND, even if this decision leads to increased funding costs in the money market.
16
October
Daily derivatives: Approaching the previous selling zone
Although the reversal for the downtrend is still not confirmed, new long positions for swing trading are not recommended due to the upcoming volatile period. The bullish move would come back only when 1,160 pts zone is broken.
Featured Articles
15
March
Point Break
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Outlook 2022 – The Big Uptrend
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
Time to bet on economic recovery?
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Fragile hope of recovery path under the worst outbreak
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
INFLATION: A transient or long-lasting shock?
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.