Research Center

Selling pressure comes back in the afternoon, causing the stock market to fall deeply at the end. Notably, the liquidity is declined and recorded at a low level, indicating investors’ sentiment is still quite hesitant and not balance. Besides, the downside risk is currently high, as the VNIndex maintains to close below all major moving average lines. Therefore, investors should stand aside and carefully observe the next movements of the market.

. In general, outflow pressure has slowed down but demand was still weak. In this case, we expect that Vietnam would experience the flat net flow in upcoming weeks due to the slowdown of outflow as well as the weak demand.

Although an increase in liquidity, the concentrate level was recorded at a high level as almost all trading activities only focused on specific warrants with certain underlying assets. Besides, foreign’s selling pressure decreased but still recorded the 7th consecutive net sell value week. In general, the CWs market showed improvement compared to the previous week, however, the adjustment pressure from the underlying market still negatively impacted the CWs market.

Economic activities accelerated further in October, primarily thanks to the impressive improvement in export activities. In more detail, it seems the negative impact of external factors on Vietnam's economy has become less severe when the end of the global trajectory of rate hikes was counting down. Export turnover continued growing at a higher pace, and registered FDI surged. However, domestic consumption decelerated significantly due to prolonged cautious spending, subdued foreign tourism, and a lingering reduction in manufacturing employment. For future developments, we expect the export activities to recover and overwhelmingly drive economic activities to accelerate in the next month.

NKG’s revenue inched down 3.7% yoy and slid 22.5% qoq to VND4,262bn in 3Q23 due to the weak demand. The 3Q23 NPAT posted a VND23.6bn (-81.1% qoq), an improvement over the 3Q22’s loss of VND418.7bn. 2Q23’s gross margin of 9% halved to 4.8% in 3Q23

3Q23 PBT rallied +19.6%yoy to VND9,051bn mainly thanks lower provision expense (-46%yoy) and operating expenses (-18%yoy). 9M2023 PBT climbed +18.5%yoy to VND29,550bn, equalling 69% of 2023 PBT guidance and 71% of our forecasts.

HPG’ revenue decreased 16.5% yoy to VND28,484bn in 3Q23 while only edged down 3.4% on the qoq basis, NPAT posted VND2,000.4bn (+38.2% qoq) an improvement over 3Q22 loss of VND1,785.7bn. Thanks to the lower COGS (-24.8%yoy, -5.4% qoq), the gross margin was raised to 12.6% in 3Q23 (+1.8%p qoq, +9.7%p yoy) despite lower ASP.

During this period, short positions are extremely risky due to the high volatile market move. In order to reduce the risk, trader should wait for the consolidation phase to capture the good entry.

Demand comes back in the afternoon, dragging the stock market to increase again with low liquidity, showing positive signals. However, the downside risk is still intact as the VNIndex maintains to close below all major moving average lines. Therefore, investors should reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold and wait for the next signal.

Medium-term correction period is confirmed and the bullish swing could not come back in the short-term. Besides, market leg is still unclear and selling pressure is still high. Thus, investors should stay on the sidelines and wait for more valid signal for the upcoming trend.