Research Center

3Q23 net profit grew +3.4%qoq and -13%yoy to VND5,843bn mainly due to higher operating expenses (+20.5%yoy, CIR: from 29% in 3Q22 to 35% in 3Q23) and a sharp increase in credit provision expense (+55.1%yoy). Meanwhile, total operating income stayed flat (+0.8%yoy), resulting from better than non-interest income (+13%yoy). 9M2023 PBT slumped -17.8%yoy to VND17,115bn, equalling to 78% of the 2023 target and 83% of our 2023 forecasts.

On Oct 24, we attended VHM’s 3Q23, and the presentation covered how the “King” fared better. VHM announced the 3Q23 results with a VND32.5tn revenue (82.6% yoy) and a VND10.7tn NPATMI (-26.2% yoy) in light of the absence of bulk sale transaction in financial income of VND10.9tn in 3Q22. VHM rock the market with its 9M23 revenue of VND94.tn, and NPAT of VND32.4tn, completion of 94/106% of their full-year estimate.

The current rebound phase is ended. Subsequent bearish candles have faded rebound phase and increase the risk for holding long positions. However, on Friday session, there is demand near MA200. Thus, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for valid trading signal.

Selling pressure comes back again and intensifies strongly during the session, causing the stock market to have a deep loss day with low liquidity. The downside risk is still intact as the VNIndex closes below the 200-period moving average. However, the important support zone of the 1,080-1,100 points is still not breakout. Therefore, investors should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals.

In general, outflow pressure has slowed down but demand was still weak. In this case, we expect that Vietnam would experience the flat net flow in upcoming weeks due to the slowdown of outflow.

The trading interest has started to spread to all cover warrants which have different underlying assets as well as trading activity also surged across groups. This is a sign of the active market. However, the adjustment from the underlying market has negatively impacted the CWs market.

We initiate our coverage on VCB with a BUY rating and a target price of VND100,000, implying a 18% upside by using a residual approach (50%) and P/B method (50%). VCB still maintained profit growth (+18%yoy in 1H2023) and was not pressured by increasing bad debt like other banks. We forecast that 2024F/2025F BVPS could grow 21%yoy.

Liquidity condition in the money market this week seems to be tight after a series of bill offerings, with the interbank rate for short tenors surging on the last trading day. ON, 1-week, 2-week, and 1-month rates rose by 89bps, 97bps, 95bps, and 65bps, respectively. Also, the trading and winning G-bond yields continuously rose, especially in the mid and long tenors, likely reflecting the rising yields environment returned.. With a dominating newly offering amount, SBV likely signals to the market participants that the balance point for short-term funding costs could be higher unless USDVND cools down significantly.

The current rebound phase is ended. Subsequent bearish candles have faded rebound phase and increase the risk for holding long positions. However, on Friday session, there is demand near MA200. Thus, traders should stay on the sidelines and wait for valid trading signal.

The downside risk is still present as the VNIndex closes below the 100-period moving average. Therefore, investors should stay on the sidelines and wait for the next signals.