Tiếng Việt
普通话
23
October
Chart of the day: Wait for bottoming signals
In this situation, investors need to be cautious, stay on the sidelines and wait for the next reversal signal.
Research Center
20
October
Global yields surge: implications on Vietnam
This report delves into the current dynamics of U.S. G -Bond yields rising and its potential impacts on Vietnam. We explore the driving factors behind the surging yields, including term premiums, short-term rate adjustments, economic outlook, the influence of Treasury supply versus overseas demand, and Fitch’s downgrade on U.S. ratings. Additionally, we analyze the perspective of Federal Reserve leaders regarding rising yields and their potential to act as a substitute for rate hikes.
20
October
Daily derivatives: Retest 1,100 pts zone
Short positions on VN30F2310 is expired. For new positions, traders should stalk the trading point on the upcoming contract VN30F2311. (Hourly chart)
20
October
Market commentary: Still “Sliding downhill without brakes”
The stock market has a 4th consecutive deep loss session by more than 1%, indicating selling pressure is still present. The downside risk is intact as the VNIndex remains to end below the 200-period moving average. Therefore, investors should reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold and wait for the next signal.
19
October
Daily derivatives: Expiration date
Short positions on VN30F2310 should be closed at ATC session. For new positions, traders should stalk the trading point on the upcoming contract VN30F2311. (Hourly chart)
19
October
Market commentary: Selling signal?
Selling pressure continuously intensifies strongly during the session, causing the stock market to experience a 3rd consecutive deep loss session by more than 1% with high liquidity. Notably, the VNIndex ends below the 200-period moving average during the day. That means the downside risk is still present and quite significant. Therefore, investors should reduce a portion of stocks in their portfolio to the safety threshold and wait for the next signal.
18
October
NT2-Earnings Review-[BUY]-3Q23 NPAT dropped dramatically.
In 3Q23, NT2 recorded a significant drop of 62% yoy in revenue. Gross profit and NPAT reported losses of VND 132bn and VND 124bn, respectively. The volume in 3Q23 was 365mn kWh (-59% yoy, -65% qoq), which fulfilled 52% of the 2023 plan, The average selling price was VND2,203 per kWh (+6%yoy, +6%qoq).In 4Q23, we forecast the NT2’s revenue and NPAT are VND1,161bn (-40% yoy,) and VND3bn (-43% yoy).
18
October
NKG-Brief-[HOLD]-Growth halted
- Total September steel sales volume posted 53,644 tonnes, decreased by 14.1% yoy and dropped by 28.9% mom. - Steel coat volume made up 83.2% of the Sep total sales volume at 44,633 tonnes, +3.4% yoy, -32.8% mom. - The coated steel export volume (27,616 tonnes) plummeted by 43% mom but rose 19.7% yoy.
18
October
HSG-Brief-[HOLD]-Coated steel export still to made stride
Total Sep steel sales volume posted 127,058 tonnes, slight increased by 8.1% yoy but went down by 5.7% mom. - Steel coat volume made up 81.1% of the Sep total sales volume at 103,047 tonnes, -6.5% mom and +21.3% yoy. The coated steel export volume (59,649 tonnes) went down by 8.5% mom but still high compare to 2022 (+69.5% yoy).
18
October
HPG-Brief-[HOLD]-Export made up for low local sale
Total September steel sales volume posted 655,880 tonnes, increased by 9.1% mom and 1.9% yoy. Construction steel volume increased to 352,930 tonnes, +11.2% yoy, +15.0% mom. The coated steel sales volume (20,970 tonnes) doubled by -5.8% yoy, +75.5% mom while steel pipes sales volume (49,906 tonnes) fell by 36.8% mom, but enlarged by 17.7% mom. The steel coil sales volume (HRC) was 234,074 tonnes (+2.6% yoy, -3.0% mom).
Featured Articles
15
March
Point Break
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Outlook 2022 – The Big Uptrend
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
Time to bet on economic recovery?
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Fragile hope of recovery path under the worst outbreak
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
INFLATION: A transient or long-lasting shock?
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.