24
March
On 21th Mar 2022, The US Department of Commerce (DOC) announced the final results of 17th period of review (POR 17) on pangasius exported to US market. Accordingly, anti-dumping duty is at USD0/kg for 4 pangasius exporters. As more exporters (Van Duc Tien Giang and NFTS as additional exporters) to enjoy zero anti-dumping tax could impact positively to Vietnam pangasius industry.
18
March
According to Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT), total coal volume supplied by Vinacomin (TKV) and Dong Bac Group to EVN's 14 coal-fired power plants in February were only equivalent to 69.24% of the predetermined contracted volume and much lower than their operation demand. As we contacted with TKV, they asserted that TKV still supplied enough coal for power production in 2M22. TKV will mobilize labors to ensure coal supply of 150,000 tonnes/day.
17
March
According to the MoIT, fertilizer export volume in Feb fell dramatically to 50,000 tonnes (-86% mom and -44% yoy), leading the export value down to USD26mn ( -91% mom and -7% yoy). On average, the export price was USD520/tonne (+67 yoy and -36% mom) in Feb. We believe that the reason for the cutting down export volume mainly comes from Government’s effort in stabilizing domestic fertilizer prices and stockpiling fertilizer to ensure supply for the upcoming Summer-Autumn crop.
16
March
This monthly report on Vietnam steel production is intended to track the developments in the steel market. Feb 2022 Vietnam steel production increased 2% mom to 2.41mn tonnes. During Feb 22, we observed the revival of domestic demand despite the long Tet holiday.
09
March
In February 2022, seafood export value recorded USD635mn (+62% yoy and -27% mom), contributed by shrimp product with USD237mn (+51% yoy), pangasius product with USD171mn (+128% yoy). US market increased Vietnam seafood export value with USD146mn (+84% yoy). Export value revived in China market to USD91mn (+135% yoy).
08
March
In Nov 2021, electricity production was 20.71bn kWh (+3.9% yoy, +2.1% mom). Hydropower output was slightly down 2.9% mom to 8.55bn kWh but increased 11% yoy thanks to La Nina effects. The output of gas thermal and coal-fired power was down yoy due to the rising price of input material.
04
March
Based on our collection, the 4Q21 aggregate earnings momentum of 26 listed Oil & gas companies on three bourses recovered from the bottom of 3Q21 due to gloomy demand in the lockdown period. Net profit growth decelerated to 33% yoy in 4Q21 from the peak of 1Q21. Overall, 2021 outcome was eventually splendid with a 172% yoy net profit and 30% yoy revenue growth.
28
February
In January 2022, seafood export recorded USD872mn of value (+44% yoy, -7% mom), mainly based on the low base of 2020 as 2021 Lunar new year was in January, making 10-day suspension of operation activities. Of which, US market increased Vietnam seafood export with USD199.8mn value (+84% yoy. +14% mom) backed by surging all leading products.
28
February
Based on our estimate, 4Q21 aggregated revenue of 22 listed pharmaceutical companies fell by 25.2% yoy, while 4Q21 aggregated NPATMI slightly inched up by 6.7% yoy. We believe there will be plenty of room for growth for the pharmaceutical sector in 1Q22F mainly due to (1) revenue through ETC increases when the filed hospitals take back their capacity; (2) demand is rising as people tend to store medicine in order to prevent Omicron variant and deal with “post” COVID diseases; (3) opportunity is coming from franchising the COVID-19 treatment drugs production progress.
15
March
Regarding the impact of the global commodity price surge on Vietnam CPI, we estimate that the current value of Brent price could push 2022 inflation to exceed the government target of 4%, mainly through the consumption channel. However, implementing well-established tools allows the Vietnam government to mitigate external shocks proactively. To sum up, we forecast that the global commodity surge would create temporary pressure on Vietnam inflation.
27
December
Key factors that drive the stock market to rise in 2022 include: (1) the Vietnam economy recovering and strong growth in 2022 and (2) new money will continue to flow into the stock market as new cash flows into stock markets and new money comes from capital flows of securities companies to margin.
09
November
A record plunge in Vietnam’s economy in 3Q21 has threatened economic prospects in the medium and long term growth. The government is standing in a right place to mitigate the lingering impact of the current outbreak and the next ones if they take appropriate actions in an appropriate timing and appropriate way. Recent macro and policy developments are signaling that the ongoing economic recovery would be smooth and sound, but it needs a booster shot, a sufficiently large fiscal relief package, to accelerate recovery momentum and help economic growth back on track. From our view, the “Economic Recovery and Development” fiscal support package, if successfully passed, would be a key to unlocking the full potential of the economic recovery.
26
July
Amid a widespread COVID-19 delta attack in the Southeast Asia region, Vietnam is stepping into the worst outbreak in both its health and economic impacts. Although the government actively deployed various solutions to follow the twin target that effectively controls the pandemic and promotes socio-economic development, the negative impact of economic recovery is inevitable. We predict that the COVID-19 economic impacts on domestic consumption and production levels would be partly reflected in oncoming macroeconomic updates under strict lockdowns nationwide.
18
June
Surging commodity prices and increasing inflation recently pose a considerable risk to global economic stability. However, the majority of global economists and monetary policymakers just saw this phenomenon as a transitory factor, and this trend would eventually reverse to a normal track in the medium- and long- term. Regarding Vietnam's situation, we saw a stable demand-supply balance in major commodities and well-controlled price conditions. The inflation shock in the near term, if it happens, would be expected to be transient and bear a little risk to the economic stability.
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